Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Report February 2026 - Market Analysis & Data
Rob Ripperda
February Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved up 4.4% in February on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the prior month. Year over year, shipments were 3.7% below February of 2025.
February continued a three-month recovery from the December low of 1,173, though shipments have yet to return to the 1,500 level seen through most of 2024 and early 2025.
The 1,388 total homes shipped for the month landed in the upper side of the prediction interval at 121 homes above the point forecast from last month.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 557 | 831 | 1,388 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | -5.6% | 15.1% | 5.8% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | -33 | 109 | 76 |
| Change from January (SA %): | -5.1% | 13.5% | 4.4% |
| Change from February of 2025 (%): | -4.3% | -3.3% | -3.7% |
| Change from February of 2025 (Units): | -25 | -28 | -53 |
Monthly Manufacturer Shipments
February Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production moved up in February 4.5% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the previous month. The total of homes produced was 1,609 and minimum floors were 2,360.
Year over year, total homes were 11.2% below February of 2025, and minimum floors were 9.4% below the previous year.
The production total landed in the upper side of the prediction interval, 163 homes above last month’s point forecast.
Texas production lagged the shipment recovery on a year-over-year basis, with out-of-state manufacturers helping close the gap for retailers.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 1,609 | 353 | 2,360 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | 7.3% | 2.6% | 9.9% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | 110 | 9 | 212 |
| Change from January (SA %): | 4.5% | NA | 10.4% |
| Change from February of 2025 (%): | -11.2% | -23.6% | -9.4% |
| Change from February of 2025 (Units): | -203 | -109 | -245 |
Monthly Manufacturer Shipments
March Outlook
The forecasting models point to March shipments around 1,510 (1,299–1,721) and Texas factory production around 1,769 (1,545–1,993).
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) signaled broad run rate increases for March.
I’d lean towards the over on the production forecast and shipments look like a coin flip.
Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results
Retail Sales Comparison
The 12-month moving average for shipments peaked in July 2025 for this production expansion cycle and has been moving lower through February 2026.
The 12-month moving average for retail sales is currently plotted through November 2025. Late title work will continue to push the most recent months higher, though not to the extent seen in prior years.
Year to Date
Shipments
Shipments for the year are currently 8.9% below 2025.
The forecast for 2026 Texas shipments moved up to 16,633 (13,974–19,627).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2026 YTD: | 1,147 | 1,553 | 2,700 |
| Change from 2025 (%): | -3.5% | -12.6% | -8.9% |
| Change from 2025 (Units): | -41 | -223 | -264 |
Production
Texas plant total home production in 2026 is 16.9% below the previous year and the minimum floors built were 16.1% below 2025.
The forecast for 2026 Texas plant production moved up to 19,812 (16,926–23,008).
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2026 YTD: | 3,108 | 697 | 4,508 |
| Change from 2025 (%): | -16.9% | -28.4% | -16.1% |
| Change from 2025 (Units): | -631 | -276 | -867 |
Annual Totals
