Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in September 2023 and the October Early Read

Monday, December 18, 2023 8:30:00 AM

October Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in October titled to date have moved down a seasonally-adjusted -3.2% from the previous month and are -4.1% below October of 2022.

The forecast for total new homes sold in October based on sales titled to date is 1,236 (+/- 76). The upper bound of the prediction interval is below the shipment total for the month, so October should mark the first month of aggregate inventory growth since December of 2022.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for October: 371 513 884
Change from September (Raw %): -16.4% 2.4% -6.5%
Change from September (Raw Units): -73 12 -61
Change from September (SA %): -6.2% -2.8% -3.2%
Change from October of 2022 (%): -12.5% 3% -4.1%
Change from October of 2022 (Units): -53 15 -38
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for October: 104 58 162
Change from September (Raw %): -2.8% 45% 10.2%
Change from September (Raw Units): -3 18 15
Change from September (SA %): -3.7% 20% 3.3%
Change from October of 2022 (%): 5.1% 9.4% 6.6%
Change from October of 2022 (Units): 5 5 10

September Data

New home sales for September titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -1.2% from the previous month and are down -1.5% compared to September of 2022.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in September moved up with the additional titling data to 1,358 (+/- 76). The lower bound of the prediction interval remains above the shipment total for the month, so we should see nine straight months of retail sales outpacing shipments after having no such months in the stretch between August of 2021 and December of 2022.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for September: 529 624 1,153
Change from August (Raw %): -11.7% -6% -8.7%
Change from August (Raw Units): -70 -40 -110
Change from August (SA %): -3.5% 1.3% -1.2%
Change from September of 2022 (%): -2.9% -0.2% -1.5%
Change from September of 2022 (Units): -16 -1 -17
New Home Characteristics for SeptemberSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 139 105 115
Average Square Feet: 1,029 1,748 1,418
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Harris 58 9.4%
Liberty 55 -22.5%
Montgomery 52 13%
Hays 38 111.1%
Ector 26 30%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for September: 135 54 189
Change from August (Raw %): -10% -11.5% -10.4%
Change from August (Raw Units): -15 -7 -22
Change from August (SA %): 3.6% 0% 3.9%
Change from September of 2022 (%): -3.6% -12.9% -6.4%
Change from September of 2022 (Units): -5 -8 -13

Annual Totals

New home sales crested the 13,000 homes mark, but continue to trail 2022 now down -1.3% from the previous year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Single-section and multi-section home sales remain below 2022’s totals. The cumulative new home sale total for this this point now trails 2020 as well, but the back half of 2022 was also surpassed by the total volume of sales in each of the 2019-2021 selling years.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down again to 16,020 (+/- 340). October sales are trending lower than they looked to be one month ago and the forecast is projecting that pessimism into November and December.

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are again Midland, Harris, Montgomery, Hidalgo, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Conroe, Odessa, Donna, Denton, and Pearland.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2023 titled to date: 6,121 6,931 13,052
Change from 2022 (%): -1.1% -1.5% -1.3%
Change from 2022 (Units): -67 -106 -173
New Home Characteristics for 2023SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 128 100 116
Average Square Feet: 1,064 4,416 2,844
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Harris 679 27.4%
Montgomery 618 28%
Liberty 535 -4.1%
Hidalgo 381 54.9%
Bexar 345 -15.2%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2023 titled to date: 1,524 696 2,220
Change from 2022 (%): -34.3% -27.3% -32.2%
Change from 2022 (Units): -794 -262 -1,056

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 506 546 1,052 -4.7
February 590 511 1,101 0.9
March 725 777 1,502 -3.3
April 551 653 1,204 -17.8
May 765 871 1,636 13.1
June 693 829 1,522 -2.7
July 543 682 1,225 3.2
August 654 722 1,376 8.1
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 126 66 192 -38.5
February 177 74 251 -19.0
March 204 74 278 -31.9
April 130 79 209 -50.7
May 151 76 227 -49.1
June 158 75 233 -37.5
July 150 65 215 -28.3
August 157 65 222 -23.7

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 12-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through August. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.