Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in September 2022 and the October Early Read

October Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in October for titles issued to date are running slightly lower than the previous month, with sales down a seasonally adjusted -0.5%. New home sales are running +15.3% over October of 2021, with single-section sales up 23.6% and multi-section sales up 9%.

The forecast for new homes sold in October based on sales titled to date is 1,388 (+/- 84)***. The forecast is currently above the total number of homes that were shipped in October. The last time retail sales outpaced shipments for a month was July of 2021, and manufacturers are going to need more of those months before production can ramp back up.

***Note: With this release we are swapping in a dynamic regression model instead of the linear regression model we had been using for retail sales prior to this date.

September Data

New home sales titled to date for September are up a seasonally adjusted +1.7% from the previous month, and are up +2.2% from September of 2021.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in September remains at 1,455, though the prediction interval has narrowed to (+/- 84)***.

***Note: With this release we are swapping in a dynamic regression model instead of the linear regression model we had been using for retail sales prior to this date.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2022 are now up +3.5% over last year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year.

Single-section sales are up +3.4% and multi-section sales are up +3.5%.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down slightly to 16,453 (+/- 1,055).

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 12-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Retail sales have not beaten shipments in any month since July of 2021.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through August sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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