Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in October 2020 and November Early Read

November Preliminary Data

New homes sales for November of 2020 are currently running 16.3% above 2019. I’ve added seasonally adjusted percentage changes to the tables below to make month-to-month comparisons more meaningful given the magnitude that seasonal impacts have. After seasonal adjustment, November new home sales were running even with October.

The forecast for final total sales in November based on the early release total is 1,427 +/- 179.

October Data

New home sales for October were up 11.5% over 2019, and were right in line with September’s total after seasonal adjustment.

The forecast for total sales in October based on the release total is 1,501 +/- 92.

I’ve been tracking the delta between monthly shipments and retail sales, and I’ve added a new Shipments less Sales interactive chart below. With official forecasts for October and November above where shipments for those months came in at, there is going to be inventory pressure in early 2021. Typically there are more shipments that sales from August through the end of the year, but that isn’t likely to have been the case in 2020. Right now I expect sales to beat shipments for that stretch when shipments typically outpace sales.

The market has seen this before, when in the wake of the Baton Rouge floods of 2016 the demand for FEMA housing pulled in-state shipments down for the last quarter, but we’ll continue to report on the data as it comes in.

So far in our series, retail sales have never beaten shipments in January or February, so those months should provide some support.

Annual Totals

This section of the report has been updated to include all available sales data that has come in to date. Previous versions of this report were limited to sales through the official report month.

Annual sales for 2020 are now up 6.3% over 2019 and the forecast for total sales on the year has moved up to 16,516 +/- 923.

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-01-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 1-15. Sales have been at monthly series highs since June of 2020.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-01-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, but the most recent totals can be seen in the next chart.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-01-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date, with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-01-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This is a new chart tracking the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Sales are expected to outpace shipments for September and all remaining months in 2020.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-01-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-01-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-01-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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