Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in November 2023 and the December Early Read

December Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in December titled to date appear to have picked up over last month moving up a seasonally-adjusted +7.8% from the previous month and are up +5.2% over December of 2022.

The forecast for total new homes sold in December based on sales titled to date is 1,113 (+/- 67). The upper bound of the prediction interval is just below the shipment total for the month, so we should see two straight month of aggregate inventory growth for the state in December and November with that streak potentially starting one month earlier in October.

November Data

New home sales for November titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -4.5% from the previous month and are down -8.1% from November of 2022. With the seasonal adjustment November appears to have been the second slowest sales month on the year just slightly beating the April trough.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in November moved up with the additional titling data to 1,141 (+/- 67).

The homes sold in October got younger again for single-section homes with the median age moving below 14 weeks.

Annual Totals

New home sales crested the 15,000 home sales mark and have moved closer to 2022, with 2023 sales currently down only -0.6% from the previous year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Single-section home sales remain below 2022’s totals while multi-section sales are up by a mere three homes.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved up to 15,995 (+/- 80).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are again Midland, Montgomery, Hidalgo, Harris, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Conroe, Odessa, Donna, Pearland, Kyle, and Denton.

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 2-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through October. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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