Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in May 2023 and the June Early Read

June Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales remain on a historic pace in June for titles issued to date with the raw total currently just above last year’s total. Because of May’s stellar sales the seasonally adjusted total for June is actually down -8% over the previous month, but it is still at a record high for June at this point in the year.

The forecast for new homes sold in June based on sales titled to date is 1,586 (+/- 87). The lower bound of the prediction interval is once again above the shipment total for the month, so we should now get seven straight months of retail sales outpacing shipments.

With the additional sales data titled to date the median age for new homes sold on the year moved down one day for single-section homes from where it was last month.

May Data

New home sales titled to date for May moved up a seasonally adjusted +16.6% from the previous month, and are up +18% from May of 2022. The eastern part of the state received above average rainfall in April, so that looks to have pushed some sales that would have taken place in April into May’s total.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in May moved up slightly with the additional titling data to 1,713 (+/- 87). The raw total of new home sales is well above shipments for the month to date and will continue to move higher.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2023 are now up just +0.9% over 2022 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year. The growth is coming from single-section homes as multi-section sales have now moved below the 2022 total.

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are currently Harris, Midland, Hidalgo, Montgomery, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Odessa, Houston, Conroe, and Denton.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved up slightly to 16,873 (+/- 1,309).

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 8-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through April. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-08-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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