Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in July 2024 and the August Early Read

August Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in August titled to date are up a seasonally-adjusted +8.4% from the previous month’s early release low, but are down -15.6% from August of 2023. While rainfall was low in August soil moisture levels in east Texas have been high since April, which subsequently was the last month when 2024 sales were running above 2023.

The raw new home total for the month is once again only beating the monthly total from 2017 sales.

The forecast for total new homes sold in August based on sales titled to date starts at 1,292 (+/- 74). The upper bound of the prediction interval is a full 200 homes below the 1,567 shipment total for the month, so aggregate inventory will have expanded more.

July Data

New home sales for July titled to date have moved up a seasonally adjusted +1.3% from the previous month but were down -9.1% on the raw total from July of 2023. Harris, Montgomery, and Liberty all ended up in the top three for new home installations again this month though all three counties were down by more than the state as a whole was month-over-month.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in July moved up with the additional titling data and is now at 1,192 (+/- 74). The 12-month moving average for retail sales will move lower when July is added next month. Late titling will revise the recent numbers up, but the upper bound of the prediction interval for July is still below the total for 2023.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2024 are now down -5.7% from 2023 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Multi-section sales have fallen just 20 homes behind last year, but single-section sales remain depressed year-over-year currently down -11.7%.

At this point in the calendar for titles issued 2024 sales are trailing all years since 2017.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved up slightly to 15,359 (+/- 601).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are Waller, Hutchinson, Collin, Guadalupe, and Fannin.

Install counties with the biggest decline in new home placements from last year are Travis, Hays, Hidalgo, Harris, and Montgomery.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Greenville, Huffman, Fritch, Abilene, Pearland, and Burleson.

Mailing address cities with the largest decline in new home placements from last year are Kyle, Austin, Katy, Mission, and Spring.

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 10-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15.

Here are the cumulative sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 10-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through June. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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