Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in December 2022 and the January Early Read

Monday, March 20, 2023 9:38:38 AM

January Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in January for titles issued to date accelerated moving up a seasonally adjusted +16.6% over the previous month, and are up +6.5% from January of 2022.

The forecast for new homes sold in January based on sales titled to date is 1,101 (+/- 85). The forecast for January is currently above shipments for the month as we continue to look for the first month to outpace shipments since it last happened in July of 2021. Manufacturers need more of those months before production can ramp back up.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 393 410 803
Change from December (Raw %): 12.9% 2.5% 7.4%
Change from December (Raw Units): 45 10 55
Change from December (SA %): 18.3% 17.5% 16.6%
Change from January of 2022 (%): 11.3% 2.2% 6.5%
Change from January of 2022 (Units): 40 9 49
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 75 41 116
Change from December (Raw %): -8.5% 7.9% -3.3%
Change from December (Raw Units): -7 3 -4
Change from December (SA %): 15.6% 51% 22.8%
Change from January of 2022 (%): -34.2% -6.8% -26.6%
Change from January of 2022 (Units): -39 -3 -42

December Data

New home sales titled to date for December are down a seasonally adjusted -2.7% from the previous month, and are down -13.6% from December of 2021.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in December moved down with the additional titling data to 1,071 (+/- 85). The forecast for new home sales is not just below shipments for the month.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for December: 412 494 906
Change from November (Raw %): -17.9% -10% -13.8%
Change from November (Raw Units): -90 -55 -145
Change from November (SA %): -7.1% -4.1% -2.7%
Change from December of 2021 (%): -9.6% -16.7% -13.6%
Change from December of 2021 (Units): -44 -99 -143
New Home Characteristics for DecemberSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 127 85 109
Average Square Feet: 1,050 1,762 1,438
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Harris 37 -32.7%
Liberty 36 -32.1%
Montgomery 30 -14.3%
Bastrop 25 -21.9%
Travis 23 -8%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for December: 150 50 200
Change from November (Raw %): -35.6% -23.1% -32.9%
Change from November (Raw Units): -83 -15 -98
Change from November (SA %): -34.5% -20.1% -32.6%
Change from December of 2021 (%): -20.6% -34.2% -24.5%
Change from December of 2021 (Units): -39 -26 -65

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2022 at the last report for the year are down -0.7% compared to the previous year for all retail sales titled through this point in the subsequent calendar year.

Single-section sales were down -0.1% on the year while multi-section sales were down -1.3%.

The forecast for new home sales on the year finishes out at 16,222 (+/- 500).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 7,231 8,305 15,536
Change from 2021 (%): -0.1% -1.3% -0.7%
Change from 2021 (Units): -8 -107 -115
New Home Characteristics for 2022SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 112 103 107
Average Square Feet: 1,094 1,814 1,479
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Harris 670 19.2%
Liberty 651 -13.7%
Montgomery 560 -10%
Bexar 484 0.6%
Bastrop 428 12%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 2,882 1,139 4,021
Change from 2021 (%): -9.8% -18.7% -12.5%
Change from 2021 (Units): -312 -262 -574

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 527 595 1,122 6.0
February 512 597 1,109 17.0
March 755 830 1,585 2.7
April 691 798 1,489 -4.7
May 704 783 1,487 -5.3
June 794 808 1,602 8.0
July 527 713 1,240 -16.8
August 631 758 1,389 3.1
September 631 695 1,326 -3.8
October 515 638 1,153 -2.1
November 532 596 1,128 8.1
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 222 95 317 -24.9
February 233 90 323 18.8
March 292 130 422 -23.4
April 307 132 439 4.5
May 326 136 462 20.0
June 284 107 391 -5.3
July 237 87 324 -24.7
August 231 90 321 -20.1
September 173 72 245 -35.5
October 160 76 236 -29.8
November 267 74 341 6.9

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 3-17.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Retail sales have not beaten shipments in any month since July of 2021.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through November sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.