Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in August 2021 and the September Early Read

Wednesday, November 17, 2021 11:26:00 AM

September Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date for September are currently up a seasonally adjusted 9% over August, and are running just below September of 2020.

Single-section sales continue to run below 2020 levels down -3.6% for the month, while multi-sections are up 2.8%.

The forecast for new home sales in September based on sales titled to date is 1,407 (+/- 181).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for September: 461 473 934
Change from August (Raw %): 1.8% -1.9% -0.1%
Change from August (Raw Units): 8 -9 -1
Change from August (SA %): 15.5% 4.9% 9%
Change from September of 2020 (%): -3.6% 2.8% -0.4%
Change from September of 2020 (Units): -17 13 -4
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for September: 156 46 202
Change from August (Raw %): -13.3% -22% -15.5%
Change from August (Raw Units): -24 -13 -37
Change from August (SA %): 8.1% -11.5% 2.5%
Change from September of 2020 (%): 43.1% -13.2% 24.7%
Change from September of 2020 (Units): 47 -7 40

August Data

August new home sales titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -9.5% from July and were down -9.2% from August of 2020. The declines were seen across the product mix with both single-section and multi-section sales moving downward. Totals sales for the month are -3.5% below 2019’s levels.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in August moved down to 1,370 (+/- 95).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for August: 525 584 1,109
Change from July (Raw %): -8.5% -8.6% -8.6%
Change from July (Raw Units): -49 -55 -104
Change from July (SA %): -7% -8.1% -9.5%
Change from August of 2020 (%): -12.5% -6% -9.2%
Change from August of 2020 (Units): -75 -37 -112
New Home Characteristics for AugustSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 92.5 97 94
Average Square Feet: 1,093 1,781 1,455
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Liberty 61 8.9%
Harris 45 4.7%
Travis 42 2.4%
Bexar 32 10.3%
Montgomery 32 -40.7%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for August: 219 89 308
Change from July (Raw %): 10.6% -2.2% 6.6%
Change from July (Raw Units): 21 -2 19
Change from July (SA %): 9.2% -5% 4.7%
Change from August of 2020 (%): 23% 15.6% 20.8%
Change from August of 2020 (Units): 41 12 53

Annual Totals

The strong new home sales that occurred in the back half of 2020 continue to lower the sales gap between this year and last, with 2021 sales now up only +0.2% over 2020.

The current forecast for new home sales on the year moved up to 16,172 (+/- 469). The upper bound of the 95% confidence interval is below 2020’s 16,821 sales total, so take the under on year-over-year sales.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 5,489 6,115 11,604
Change from 2020 (%): -1.8% 2.1% 0.2%
Change from 2020 (Units): -98 125 27
New Home Characteristics for 2021SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 95 96 95
Average Square Feet: 1,102 1,804 1,472
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 577 8.3%
Montgomery 479 -5.5%
Travis 472 12.6%
Harris 412 -8%
Bexar 343 17.1%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 2,128 963 3,091
Change from 2020 (%): -2.4% 24.3% 4.6%
Change from 2020 (Units): -53 188 135

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 468 577 1,045
February 466 471 937
March 743 765 1,508
April 683 812 1,495
May 717 776 1,493
June 643 745 1,388
July 620 721 1,341
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 271 130 401
February 173 92 265
March 270 130 400
April 267 132 399
May 250 108 358
June 248 123 371
July 221 100 321

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 11-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.