Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in August 2020 and September Early Read

Tuesday, November 17, 2020 11:08:00 AM

September Preliminary Data

New home sales for September are tracking way up with single-section sales up +29% over September of 2019 and multi-section sales up a solid +13%.

A reduction in sales from August is a typical seasonal pattern and sales usually move back up in October before declining through the winter. Seasonally adjusted, September sales are right in line with August sales.

For September our model is currently forecasting a total of 1,441 new home sales (+/- 180).

New homes titled last month hit the highest October total in our series, that’s a bullish sign for Q3 sales and we’re now tracking google search data for mobile home sales and that is signaling continued growth for Q4.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for September: 507 487 994
Change from August: -7.5% -1.8% -4.8%
Change from September of 2019: 29.3% 13% 20.8%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for September: 125 53 178
Change from August: -33.9% -24.3% -31.3%
Change from September of 2019: -12% -14.5% -12.7%

August Data

New home sales in August issued on-time came in at their highest mark in the series and were up +9.3% over August of 2019.

Our final forecast for total August new home sales is 1,525 (+/- 93).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for August: 635 648 1,283
Change from July (%): 5.5% 9.1% 7.3%
Change from July (Units): 33 54 87
Change from August of 2019 (%): 2.1% 17.4% 9.3%
Change from August of 2019 (Units): 13 96 109
New Home Characteristics for AugustSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 129.5 116 122
Average Square Feet: 1,100 1,785 1,446
Top Five Counties for New Installs this MonthTotalChange (MoM%)
Liberty 74 10.4%
Montgomery 57 18.8%
Travis 52 20.9%
Harris 50 6.4%
Bastrop 32 -5.9%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for August: 219 80 299
Change from July: 3.8% -1.2% 2.4%
Change from August of 2019: 5.8% -11.1% 0.7%

Annual Totals

New home sales are now up year-over-year and our forecast for 2020 new home sales has moved up to 16,197 (+/- 1,381).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2020 through August: 4,976 5,397 10,373
Change from 2019 (%): 1.3% 1.8% 1.5%
Change from 2019 (Units): 62 95 157
New Home Characteristics for 2020SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 114 106 112
Average Square Feet: 1,100 1,781 1,454
Top Five Counties for New Installs this YearTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 473 58.2%
Montgomery 435 13.9%
Harris 398 -14.6%
Travis 365 13%
Ector 275 -35.7%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2020 through August: 2,066 720 2,786
Change from 2019 (%): 10.8% -15.9% 2.4%
Change from 2019 (Units): 202 -136 66

July Revisions

RevisionsSinglesMultisTotal
New sales increased: +39 +83 +122
Used sales increased: +31 +10 +41

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past months sales, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 578 540 1118
February 572 613 1185
March 611 725 1336
April 563 640 1203
May 644 754 1398
June 738 803 1541
July 635 674 1309
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 203 81 284
February 268 81 349
March 245 107 352
April 193 75 268
May 441 102 543
June 254 103 357
July 241 90 331

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

June of 2020 is now at the highest new home sales total for any month in the series through 11-16, and August and September are on their own record paces for their respective months.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-11-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.