Texas Manufactured Housing Sales Market Analysis

September Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in September titled to date are down a seasonally-adjusted -0.4% from the previous month, and are down -10.6% from September of 2023.

Rainfall was above average in September for the state, but that should be the last month of above average soil moisture in east Texas.

The raw new home sales total for the month is tracking just above 2019 sales.

The forecast for total new homes sold in September based on sales titled to date starts at 1,216 (+/- 73). The upper bound of the prediction interval is a full 181 homes below the 1,470 shipment total for the month, so aggregate inventory should have increased.

August Data

New home sales for August titled to date have moved up a seasonally adjusted +12.3% from the previous month but were down -3.2% on the raw total from August of 2023.

Liberty, Montgomery, and Harris all ended up in the top three for new home installations again this month beating the state’s 19.7% raw month-over-month increase in sales.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in August moved up with the additional titling data and is now at 1,440 (+/- 73).

August sales numbers improved from the early release to this report, but the 12-month moving average for retail sales should move lower when August rolls in next month.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2024 are now down -3.3% from 2023 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Multi-section sales have retaken the lead over last year, but single-section sales remain at their lowest sales total since 2016.

At this point in the calendar for titles issued 2024 sales are still trailing all years since 2017, but an increase in titled sales for July and August has narrowed the gap.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved up to 15,682 (+/- 459).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are Hunt, Ector, Waller, Fannin, Smith, and Hutchinson.

Install counties with the biggest decline in new home placements from last year are Harris, Hays, Travis, Montgomery, and Hidalgo.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Greenville, Huffman, Tyler, Fritch, and San Antonio.

Mailing address cities with the largest decline in new home placements from last year are Kyle, Austin, Conroe, Katy, and Houston.

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 11-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15.

Here are the cumulative sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 11-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through July. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-11-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

TMHA’s Market Research Reports and Tools