Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in October 2022
October Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to contract in October falling well below the previous five years of shipment totals for the month. The 1,320 total homes shipped marked a seasonally adjusted -11.1% decline from September and a -12.2% reduction from October of 2021.
The product mix remained majority single-section with those deliveries making up 52% of units shipped.
The 1,320 total homes was 158 homes below the bottom of the forecasted prediction interval, which at a 95% confidence level should occur approximately 5% of the time. There were eight plants whose production totals came in more than 50 homes below their trend lines.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for October: | 687 | 633 | 1,320 |
| Change from September (Raw %): | -15.3% | -10% | -12.8% |
| Change from September (Raw Units): | -124 | -70 | -194 |
| Change from September (SA %): | -9.2% | -9.8% | -11.1% |
| Change from October of 2021 (%): | 4.2% | -25% | -12.2% |
| Change from October of 2021 (Units): | 28 | -211 | -183 |
October Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production mirrored shipments with the October total of homes coming in below the previous five years of production levels for the month. The seasonally adjusted decline of -11.3% from September was the largest month-to-month decline we’ve seen since the Winter storm in February of 2021 shutdown production for roughly a week.
Compared to October of 2021 the total production of homes was down -11.1% for the month, and the product mix tilt towards single-sections pushed the year-over-year difference in floors down even more with a -15.4% reduction from the previous year.
The raw production total was a whopping -601 homes below the mean modeled forecast, and like shipments came in beneath the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval. We told you the unders were a lock last month.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for October: | 1,809 | 516 | 2,426 |
| Change from September (Raw %): | -13.5% | -13.9% | -13.1% |
| Change from September (Raw Units): | -282 | -83 | -366 |
| Change from September (SA %): | -11.3% | NA | -12.4% |
| Change from October of 2021 (%): | -11.1% | -7.7% | -15.4% |
| Change from October of 2021 (Units): | -227 | -43 | -442 |
November Outlook
The forecasting models have November shipments at 1,434 (+/- 264) and Texas factory production at 1,982 (+/- 327) homes. The drop in production last month has pulled these forecasts down, but with the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) highlighting further reductions in run rates and workweeks, take both unders once again.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for November.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of October totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up +13.8% over 2021 through this same point in the calendar year, and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up +12.9%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves down to 19,436 (+/- 434) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 25,791 (+/- 526).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 8,507 | 8,241 | 16,748 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 27.4% | 2.5% | 13.8% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,829 | 198 | 2,027 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 22,081 | 5,896 | 30,062 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 12.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 2,523 | 514 | 2,808 |
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