Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in November 2023
November Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers accelerated in November moving up a seasonally-adjusted +8.2% from the previous month and beating the forecast. The increase continues to push the seasonally adjusted total to the highest level thus far for the eighth straight month.
The November shipment total was +11.1% above November of 2022 and year-over-year gains are expected for the foreseeable future as run rates are at their highest levels since September of 2022.
On the demand side placements are still expected to outpace shipments through September, but we should see aggregate inventory rise for both October and November where shipments are expected to be higher than retail sales.
The 12-month moving average for shipments moved up again with the November gains. The 12-month moving average for shipments remains below where the 12-month moving average for retail sales is through August of 2022. The moving average for retail sales is now expected to move sideways through October.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for November: | 640 | 751 | 1,391 |
| Change from October (Raw %): | 1.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Change from October (Raw Units): | 10 | 42 | 52 |
| Change from October (SA %): | 6.3% | 10% | 8.2% |
| Change from November of 2022 (%): | 6.5% | 15.4% | 11.1% |
| Change from November of 2022 (Units): | 39 | 100 | 139 |
November Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production expanded further in November beating the forecast and moving up a seasonally-adjusted +0.5% from the previous month. The minimum number of floors produced was up a seasonally-adjusted +3.1%, so increases in multi-section production obscured some of the increase from the headline numbers.
In comparison to November of 2022 the raw total of homes produced was up +5.6%.
Shipments to out of state locations were again up compared to November of 2022.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for November: | 1,750 | 467 | 2,439 |
| Change from October (Raw %): | -5.5% | -17.3% | -3.8% |
| Change from October (Raw Units): | -101 | -98 | -96 |
| Change from October (SA %): | 0.5% | NA | 3.1% |
| Change from November of 2022 (%): | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Change from November of 2022 (Units): | 93 | 22 | 110 |
December Outlook
The forecasting models have December shipments at 1,143 (+/- 212) and Texas factory production at 1,509 (+/- 263) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for December signaled further increases in run rates but the holidays add uncertainty to the number of production days, so I’d put both overs as coin flips once again.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for December.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total and Texas plant production total are both now down -25.1% from 2022.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved up to 14,624 (+/- 212) while forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 19,270 (+/- 259). The forecasted totals put 2023 shipments right in between 2014 and 2019, and annual production just under 2019.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 6,358 | 7,122 | 13,480 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -30.1% | -20% | -25.1% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -2,738 | -1,782 | -4,520 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 17,776 | 5,001 | 24,451 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -25.1% | -21.1% | -24.5% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -5,962 | -1,340 | -7,952 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.