Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in May 2023
May Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers expanded in May with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +3.8% from the previous month. The 1,295 total homes shipped came in on the high side of the forecasted interval.
Despite the increase in run rates May shipments were still -26.5% below last year, but moved above the series average for the month. Shipments have been below the series monthly average for every prior month this year.
The good news for manufacturers continues with April and May retail sales on pace to surpass shipment totals for those months, just like February and March have already done.
The retail sales forecasts have May as the first month where the 12-month moving average for retail sales is expected to move above shipments.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for May: | 595 | 700 | 1,295 |
| Change from April (Raw %): | 25% | 10.2% | 16.6% |
| Change from April (Raw Units): | 119 | 65 | 184 |
| Change from April (SA %): | 9.5% | 1.8% | 3.8% |
| Change from May of 2022 (%): | -31.4% | -21.8% | -26.5% |
| Change from May of 2022 (Units): | -272 | -195 | -467 |
May Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production continued to expand in May with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +5.6% from the previous month. In comparison to May of 2022 the raw total of homes was down -25.4%.
The 1,739 total homes produced was just inside the top of the forecast interval for the month as Texas plant production pulled ahead of 2019.
Seeing a similar expansion to the shipment numbers, the production total for May was above the series average for the month for the first time since 2022.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for May: | 1,739 | 495 | 2,400 |
| Change from April (Raw %): | 18.9% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| Change from April (Raw Units): | 276 | 82 | 373 |
| Change from April (SA %): | 5.6% | NA | 5.4% |
| Change from May of 2022 (%): | -25.4% | -21.9% | -25% |
| Change from May of 2022 (Units): | -591 | -139 | -800 |
June Outlook
The forecasting models have June shipments at 1,211 (+/- 227) and Texas factory production at 1,693 (+/- 278) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for June signaled a further increase in run rates, though there was a small portion of the market that reported lowered workweeks.
Take the over for both.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total is down -34.1% and Texas plant production is down -34.8%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved up to 13,741 (+/- 1,432) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 18,423 (+/- 1,684). Those totals would put 2023 around the 2014 and 2015 levels.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 2,657 | 3,057 | 5,714 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -38.1% | -30.2% | -34.1% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -1,636 | -1,325 | -2,961 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 7,412 | 1,952 | 10,292 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -34.8% | -34.6% | -34.1% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -3,959 | -1,032 | -5,327 |
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