Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in June 2024
June Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers slowed in June with both the number of production days moving lower than last month and the rate of homes shipped per day moving down to the lowest level since January. The seasonally-adjusted total for the month was down -6.3% from the previous month but the raw total was still up +1.6% from June of 2023.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for June: | 602 | 792 | 1,394 |
| Change from May (Raw %): | -10.7% | -16.7% | -14.2% |
| Change from May (Raw Units): | -72 | -159 | -231 |
| Change from May (SA %): | -2.6% | -6.6% | -6.3% |
| Change from June of 2023 (%): | -5% | 7.3% | 1.6% |
| Change from June of 2023 (Units): | -32 | 54 | 22 |
June Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production also slowed down in June but by not as much as shipments moving a seasonally-adjusted -2.5% below the previous month but still up +2.3% over the raw total for June of 2023.
Shipments to out of state retailers moved down -15.6% sequentially.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for June: | 1,822 | 494 | 2,563 |
| Change from May (Raw %): | -12.4% | -15.6% | -12.4% |
| Change from May (Raw Units): | -257 | -91 | -362 |
| Change from May (SA %): | -2.5% | NA | -2.2% |
| Change from June of 2023 (%): | 2.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Change from June of 2023 (Units): | 41 | 24 | 90 |
July Outlook
The forecasting models have July shipments at 1,256 (+/- 201) and Texas factory production at 1,644 (+/- 228) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for July indicated a slight decline in run rates could have occurred, but the future expectations for orders, production, and backlogs all took a large jump up.
The forecasting models both look solid with the information we have available, if you were going to place a bet the potential decline in production rates indicated in the TMHS would say take the unders.
Annual Totals
The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +29.5% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +26.5%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moved down to 17,512 (+/- 1,514) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 22,708 (+/- 1,696).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 4,143 | 5,035 | 9,178 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 25.9% | 32.7% | 29.5% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 852 | 1,240 | 2,092 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 11,631 | 3,054 | 16,246 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 26.5% | 26.1% | 27.3% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 2,438 | 632 | 3,481 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.