Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in July 2024
July Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers accelerated in July moving up a seasonally-adjusted +2.1% over the previous month and +26.9% over the total for July of 2023. The 1,326 homes shipped for the month was on the high-side of the forecast as the rate of homes shipped per production day rose despite the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) responses indicating a potential decline.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 578 | 748 | 1,326 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -4% | -5.6% | -4.9% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -24 | -44 | -68 |
| Change from June (SA %): | -1.6% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Change from July of 2023 (%): | 12.7% | 40.6% | 26.9% |
| Change from July of 2023 (Units): | 65 | 216 | 281 |
July Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production also accelerated in July moving up a seasonally-adjust +1.8% over the previous month and up +27.7% over the raw total for July of 2023. The min floor data was even stronger boosted by the elevated levels of multi-section home shipments to Texas retailers.
Shipments to out of state retailers were also robust for the month.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 1,715 | 461 | 2,419 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -5.9% | -6.7% | -5.6% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -107 | -33 | -144 |
| Change from June (SA %): | 1.8% | NA | 3.1% |
| Change from July of 2023 (%): | 27.7% | 29.1% | 32.1% |
| Change from July of 2023 (Units): | 372 | 104 | 588 |
August Outlook
The forecasting models have August shipments at 1,575 (+/- 220) and Texas factory production at 2,061 (+/- 229) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for August showed a decline in run rates and the future expectations for orders and backlogs which were elevated in July leveled off in the August results. The future sentiment for orders moderated, but remained positive.
The forecasting models incorporate the estimated run rates for both shipments and overall production. Run rate estimation is trickier for July than it usually is because of closures around Independence Day, so I’d put the over/unders at coin flips.
Annual Totals
The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +29.2% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +26.7%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moved up to 17,887 (+/- 1,251) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 22,913 (+/- 1,513).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 4,721 | 5,783 | 10,504 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 24.1% | 33.6% | 29.2% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 917 | 1,456 | 2,373 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 13,346 | 3,515 | 18,665 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 26.7% | 26.5% | 27.9% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 2,810 | 736 | 4,069 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.