Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in August 2024
August Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers in August moved up a seasonally-adjusted +4.3% over the previous month and were up +13.9% over August of 2023. The 1,567 total of homes shipped was just eight homes below the forecast. The rate of homes shipped per production day appears to have slowed from July, but at 71 homes per day it was still above the rate for June.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for August: | 673 | 894 | 1,567 |
| Change from July (Raw %): | 16.4% | 19.5% | 18.2% |
| Change from July (Raw Units): | 95 | 146 | 241 |
| Change from July (SA %): | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% |
| Change from August of 2023 (%): | -1.8% | 29.4% | 13.9% |
| Change from August of 2023 (Units): | -12 | 203 | 191 |
August Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production came in on the low side of the forecast for August moving down a seasonally-adjust -1.4% from the previous month but still finished up +4.6% over the raw total for August of 2023. The decline stemmed from lowered out-of-state deliveries and a product mix shift towards more multi-section homes.
The min floor data is better with the seasonally-adjusted total moving sideways and the year-over-year total 12.8% above August of 2023.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for August: | 1,973 | 486 | 2,821 |
| Change from July (Raw %): | 15% | 5.4% | 16.6% |
| Change from July (Raw Units): | 258 | 25 | 402 |
| Change from July (SA %): | -1.4% | NA | 0.3% |
| Change from August of 2023 (%): | 4.6% | -20.5% | 12.8% |
| Change from August of 2023 (Units): | 87 | -125 | 320 |
September Outlook
The forecasting models have September shipments at 1,437 (+/- 214) and Texas factory production at 1,802 (+/- 228) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for September showed an increase in run rates, but for the first time since October of 2022 respondents are starting to expect a pullback in production.
The over/under on both forecasts are once again coin flips.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for September.
Annual Totals
The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +27% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +23.3%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moved down slightly to 17,852 (+/- 932) and forecasted Texas plant production did the same moving to 22,887 (+/- 1,066).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 5,394 | 6,677 | 12,071 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 20.2% | 33.1% | 27% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 905 | 1,659 | 2,564 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 15,319 | 4,001 | 21,486 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 23.3% | 18% | 25.7% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 2,897 | 611 | 4,389 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.