Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in August 2023
August Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers came in +88 homes above the forecast in August with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +0.1% from the previous month. The slight increase puts the seasonally adjusted total at its highest level thus far on the year for the fifth straight month.
August shipments were down -22.6% below August of last year and as we reported last month production started contracting at this point in 2022, so the -22.6% gap represented the closest a 2023 month has come to the same month in 2022 this year. The large year-under-year comparisons should continue to narrow with next month’s release.
On the demand side placements continue to outpace shipments and have done so for every month from January through July. August placements have a good shot to beat shipments as well, but the bottom of the 95% prediction interval is just below the 1,376 homes shipped.
The 12-month moving average for shipments continued to move lower in August and is well below the 12-month moving average for retail sales through May. The 12-month moving average for shipments is at its lowest level since September of 2017.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for August: | 685 | 691 | 1,376 |
| Change from July (Raw %): | 33.5% | 29.9% | 31.7% |
| Change from July (Raw Units): | 172 | 159 | 331 |
| Change from July (SA %): | -1.3% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Change from August of 2022 (%): | -29.9% | -13.6% | -22.6% |
| Change from August of 2022 (Units): | -292 | -109 | -401 |
August Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production expanded in August beating the forecast by +180 homes and the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +1% from the previous month. In comparison to August of 2022 the raw total of homes was down -22.5%.
The expansion in total homes produced included a much larger portion of homes shipped out of state, with some of those homes being FEMA units in response to Hurricane Idalia making landfall in the southeastern part of the country.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for August: | 1,886 | 611 | 2,501 |
| Change from July (Raw %): | 40.4% | 71.1% | 36.6% |
| Change from July (Raw Units): | 543 | 254 | 670 |
| Change from July (SA %): | 1% | NA | 0.4% |
| Change from August of 2022 (%): | -22.5% | -13.1% | -21.9% |
| Change from August of 2022 (Units): | -547 | -92 | -703 |
September Outlook
The forecasting models have September shipments at 1,272 (+/- 238) and Texas factory production at 1,622 (+/- 283) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for September signaled a further increase in run rates and it also signaled that less units were headed out of state.
Take the overs.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for September.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total and Texas plant production total are both down by the same -31.7%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved up to 14,466 (+/- 834) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 18,954 (+/- 950). The totals continue to put 2023 in between 2014 and 2019 totals for shipments and in between 2015 and 2019 for production.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 4,489 | 5,018 | 9,507 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -35.8% | -27.5% | -31.7% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -2,508 | -1,899 | -4,407 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 12,422 | 3,390 | 17,097 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -31.7% | -29.1% | -31.2% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -5,759 | -1,391 | -7,759 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.