Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in April 2023
April Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers expanded in April with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +5% from the previous month. There were three less weekdays in the month compared to March, which accounted for the raw total decline. The 1,111 total homes shipped came in on the low side of the forecasted interval.
Despite the increase in run rates, April shipments were still -37.8% below last year, and moved back under the previous nine years of April totals.
The good news for manufacturers is that February and March titled retail sales have already surpassed the shipment totals for those months, and April sales are expected to beat shipments as well.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for April: | 476 | 635 | 1,111 |
| Change from March (Raw %): | -19.6% | -5.1% | -11.9% |
| Change from March (Raw Units): | -116 | -34 | -150 |
| Change from March (SA %): | -1.9% | 7.5% | 5% |
| Change from April of 2022 (%): | -45.7% | -30.1% | -37.8% |
| Change from April of 2022 (Units): | -401 | -274 | -675 |
April Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production continued to expand in April with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +6.4% from the previous month and the seasonally-adjusted floor data up +6.2%. In comparison to April of 2022 the raw total of homes was down -37.3% and the floors minimum was down -36.9%.
The 1,463 total homes produced was in the low half of the forecast interval for the month as Texas plant production also trails the previous nine Aprils.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for April: | 1,463 | 413 | 2,027 |
| Change from March (Raw %): | -9.5% | 0.7% | -10% |
| Change from March (Raw Units): | -154 | 3 | -224 |
| Change from March (SA %): | 6.4% | NA | 6.2% |
| Change from April of 2022 (%): | -37.3% | -32.1% | -36.9% |
| Change from April of 2022 (Units): | -869 | -195 | -1187 |
May Outlook
The forecasting models have May shipments at 1,152 (+/- 213) and Texas factory production at 1,480 (+/- 267) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for May signaled a further increase in run rates.
Take the over for both.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total is down -36.1% and Texas plant production is down -37.3%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved down to 13,287 (+/- 1,647) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 17,101 (+/- 1,997). Those totals would put 2023 around 2016 levels.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 2,062 | 2,357 | 4,419 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -39.8% | -32.4% | -36.1% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -1,364 | -1,130 | -2,494 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 5,673 | 1,457 | 7,892 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -37.3% | -38% | -36.5% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -3,368 | -893 | -4,527 |
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