Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in September 2024 and the October Early Read

October Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in October titled to date are up a seasonally-adjusted +1.6% from the previous month, but are down -3.7% from October of 2023.

Seasonally-adjusted sales have stayed fairly steady for the early data from August thru September, but every month since April continues to track below 2023 sales.

The forecast for total new homes sold in October based on sales titled to date starts at 1,235 (+/- 83). The upper bound of the prediction interval is a full 469 homes below the 1,787 shipment total for the month, so aggregate inventory looks to have increased by more than usual in October.

September Data

New home sales for September titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -6.8% from the previous month and are down -9.5% on the raw total from September of 2023.

Liberty, Harris, and Montgomery all ended up in the top three for new home installations again this month with only Liberty County coming in with more raw new homes sold over the previous month.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in September moved up with the additional titling data and is now at 1,238 (+/- 74).

September sales numbers came in slightly better in comparison to September of 2023 from the early release to this report, but the 12-month moving average for retail sales should move lower when September rolls in next month.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2024 are now down -3.1% from 2023 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Multi-section sales continue on a record pace, but single-section sales remain at their lowest sales total since 2016.

At this point in the calendar for titles issued 2024 sales are now ahead of 2018 sales but still trailing 2019-2023.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved up slightly to 15,735 (+/- 330).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are Hunt, Ector, Wichita, Waller, and Smith.

Install counties with the biggest decline in new home placements from last year are Travis, Hidalgo, Harris, Hays, and Montgomery.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Greenville, San Antonio, Tyler, Huffman, and Fritch.

Mailing address cities with the largest decline in new home placements from last year are Kyle, Austin, Conroe, Katy, and Denton.

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 12-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16.

Here are the cumulative sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 12-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through August. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-12-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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