Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Market Analysis
October Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers came in on the high side of the forecasted range moving up a seasonally-adjusted +7.7% in October over the previous month and up +33.5% over October of 2023. The 1,787 total of homes shipped was a record total for October and was boosted by an additional +77 homes shipping into the state over last year.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for October: | 755 | 1,032 | 1,787 |
| Change from September (Raw %): | 18.5% | 23.9% | 21.6% |
| Change from September (Raw Units): | 118 | 199 | 317 |
| Change from September (SA %): | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.7% |
| Change from October of 2023 (%): | 19.8% | 45.6% | 33.5% |
| Change from October of 2023 (Units): | 125 | 323 | 448 |
October Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production beat the point forecast once again in October moving up a seasonally-adjusted +2.2% from the previous month and up +17.1% over the raw total for October of 2023. The expansion in floors produced was even stronger with year-over-year growth hitting +22.4%.
The minimum number of floors built per day rate moved up to 135 per production day, that’s the highest it has been since August of 2022.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for October: | 2,167 | 510 | 3,102 |
| Change from September (Raw %): | 16.3% | 5.8% | 18.1% |
| Change from September (Raw Units): | 304 | 28 | 476 |
| Change from September (SA %): | 2.2% | NA | 3% |
| Change from October of 2023 (%): | 17.1% | -9.7% | 22.4% |
| Change from October of 2023 (Units): | 316 | -55 | 567 |
November Outlook
The forecasting models have November shipments at 1,505 (+/- 218) and Texas factory production at 1,805 (+/- 227) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for November showed an increase in run rates for roughly 18% of the market.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for November.
Annual Totals
The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +26.8% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +20.7%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moved up to 18,234 (+/- 475) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up as well to 22,868 (+/- 522).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 6,786 | 8,542 | 15,328 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 18.7% | 34.1% | 26.8% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 1,068 | 2,171 | 3,239 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 19,349 | 4,993 | 27,214 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 20.7% | 10.1% | 23.6% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 3,323 | 459 | 5,202 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.