Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Market Analysis
September Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved up a seasonally-adjusted +1.5% in September over the previous month and were up +18.3% over September of 2023. The 1,470 total of homes shipped came in 33 homes above the point forecast. The seasonally-adjusted total was higher than both September of 2021 and 2022, although those months did have higher unadjusted totals.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 637 | 833 | 1,470 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -5.3% | -6.8% | -6.2% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -36 | -61 | -97 |
| Change from August (SA %): | 2.9% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Change from September of 2023 (%): | 6.3% | 29.3% | 18.3% |
| Change from September of 2023 (Units): | 38 | 189 | 227 |
September Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production came in on the high side of the forecast for September moving up a seasonally-adjust +2.7% from the previous month and up +6.3% over the raw total for September of 2023. The decline stemmed from lowered out-of-state deliveries and a product mix shift towards more multi-section homes.
The minimum number of floors data was even better with the year-over-year total +10.3% above September of 2023, as Texas plants built more multi-section homes that shipped to Texas retailers over last year.
The minimum number of floors built per day rate has been remarkably steady in 2024 bouncing around the 130 floors per production day since February.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 1,863 | 482 | 2,626 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -5.6% | -0.8% | -6.9% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -110 | -4 | -195 |
| Change from August (SA %): | 2.7% | NA | 2.1% |
| Change from September of 2023 (%): | 6.3% | -16.8% | 10.3% |
| Change from September of 2023 (Units): | 110 | -97 | 246 |
October Outlook
The forecasting models have October shipments at 1,630 (+/- 219) and Texas factory production at 2,104 (+/- 229) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for October showed an increase in run rates for the most number of manufacturers since April.
Take the overs for both forecasts and look for October production to beat the 2021 high.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for October.
Annual Totals
The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +26% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +21.2%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moved up slightly to 17,943 (+/- 712) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down slightly to 22,634 (+/- 770).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 6,031 | 7,510 | 13,541 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 18.5% | 32.6% | 26% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 943 | 1,848 | 2,791 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 17,182 | 4,483 | 24,112 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 21.2% | 13% | 23.8% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 3,007 | 514 | 4,635 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.