Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in September 2020 and October Early Read

October Preliminary Data

New homes titled per day by TDHCA in December are running at a peak rate of 108 titles per day. As we move closer towards the holiday, that rate should lower, but it’s a testament to how hot sales have been running this last half of the year. The department has already titled more homes for December 2020 than were issued for every December in the series save 2019 and 2016.

As title work continues to come in pushing previous months sales totals up, every month since June is currently way up over 2019 except for July, and that month has pulled to just about even. You can see the continued spread over 2019 in the new home sales chart and that trend looks very similar to what we’re seeing in mobile homes for sale search interest.

When I seasonally adjust sales issued through 12/15 for all months in the series, June 2020 is the hottest month for sales but October and September land at the 4th and 5th highest totals since 2012.

October new home sales are currently running at a raw 11.4% ahead of September and are even with the previous month after seasonal adjustments.

Our early release regression model is forecasting 1,569 (+/- 182) new home sales for October, which puts the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval already at a series high total for October.

September Data

New home sales for September came in only -1.1% behind August. On average, sales in September are usually -9% below August, so factoring out the seasonal decline and sales processed so far are running 2% better than they were the previous month.

Our release total regression forecast for September moved up from the early data to 1,493 (+/- 91).

Annual Totals

Our new home sales forecast for 2020 has moved up to 16,450 (+/- 1,153). New home sales through September are up 4.2%, but at current rates each of the next two months of sales should push actual growth higher.

August Revisions

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past months sales, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-12-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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