Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in October 2023 and the November Early Read

November Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in November titled to date have moved down a seasonally-adjusted -4.4% from the previous month and are down -12.8% below November of 2022.

The forecast for total new homes sold in November based on sales titled to date is 1,110 (+/- 76). The upper bound of the prediction interval is below the shipment total for the month, so November is strongly expected to show aggregate inventory growth for the state.

October Data

New home sales for October titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -1.1% from the previous month but are now up +3.2% over October of 2022.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in October moved up with the additional titling data to 1,293 (+/- 71). The forecast for sales is still below October shipments, but the upper bound of the prediction interval has moved above the shipment total for the month, so hitting ten straight months of aggregate inventory reduction is not expected but remains possible after having no such months in the stretch between August of 2021 and December of 2022.

The homes sold in October got younger with the median age of a single-section home moving below 15 weeks and the median age of a multi-section home coming in just over 10 weeks.

Annual Totals

New home sales crested the 14,000 homes mark, but continue to trail 2022 now down -1.8% from the previous year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Single-section and multi-section home sales remain below 2022’s totals. The cumulative new home sale total for this point continues to trail 2020 as well.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down again to 15,959 (+/- 203).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are again Montgomery, Hidalgo, Midland, Harris, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Conroe, Odessa, Donna, Kyle, Pearland, and Denton.

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 1-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through September. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-01-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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