Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in October 2022 and the November Early Read

November Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in November for titles issued to date are up a seasonally adjusted +1% over the previous month, and are up +11.7% over November of 2021.

The forecast for new homes sold in November based on sales titled to date is 1,247 (+/- 86). The forecasts for October and November are right around shipment levels for those months and are the first months with a chance to outpace shipments since July of 2021. Manufacturers are going to need more of those months before production can ramp back up.

October Data

New home sales titled to date for October are down a seasonally adjusted -0.3% from the previous month, and are up +4.3% from October of 2021.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in October moved down with the additional titling data to 1,304 (+/- 85).

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2022 are now up +2.5% over last year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year.

Single-section sales are up +2.7% and multi-section sales are up +2.4%.

The annual total is running below 2020’s total.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down to 16,350 (+/- 974).

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 1-17.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Retail sales have not beaten shipments in any month since July of 2021.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through September sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-01-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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