Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in October 2021 and the November Early Read

November Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date moved up a seasonally adjusted 3.6% in November over the preceding month. October was a lower than expected sales month though, so while the early data for November is an improvement from the preceding month, sales are running well below last years elevated levels and roughly -10% behind the more normal market 2019 sales.

The forecast for new homes sold in November based on the sales titled to date is 1,148 (+/- 180). Similar to last month, that would put 2021 sales just above 2016 levels, but holidays and employees out due to the current omicron wave raises the volatility in the title processing rate, take the over.

Google trend data on “mobile homes for sale” searches hit another series high in December, so I’m skeptical that there has been any significant decline in demand. Additionally, the October median age of a new home which is the date of sale on the title minus the manufactured date was much higher for single-section homes then it has been averaging, so this could indicate some rise in inventory for retailers or new community spaces being filled that just haven’t been sold to a homeowner yet.

October Data

October new home sales titled to date look better than they did a month ago, and are now roughly at 2018 levels.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in October moved up to 1,258 (+/- 94).

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2021 are trailing 2020 levels by -1.8%.

The current forecast for new home sales on the year moved down to 15,871 (+/- 186).

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-01-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 1-18.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-01-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-01-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-01-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-01-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-01-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-01-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

TMHA’s Market Research Reports and Tools