Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in November 2022 and the December Early Read

December Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in December for titles issued to date are down a seasonally adjusted -8.2% over the previous month, and are down -14.5% from December of 2021.

The forecast for new homes sold in December based on sales titled to date is 1,149 (+/- 84). The forecasts for November and December are currently above the shipment levels for those months and are the first months expected to outpace shipments since July of 2021. Manufacturers need more of those months before production can ramp back up.

Titling at the MH Division at TDHCA was closed for two or more days at the beginning of February because of the ice storm in Austin, so that event adds some uncertainty in whether more titles would have been issued for November and December sales if the closure had not occurred. The forecasts do not account for that and could be slightly underestimating totals.

November Data

New home sales titled to date for November are down a seasonally adjusted -0.4% from the previous month, but are up +10.9% from November of 2021.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in November moved up with the additional titling data to 1,261 (+/- 84).

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2022 have fallen behind 2021 by -0.4% for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year. December of 2021 was a seasonally strong sales month and the ice storm closure could be pulling 2022 sales down slightly.

Single-section sales are still up on the year while multi-section sales have fallen behind.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down to 16,100 (+/- 750).

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 2-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Retail sales have not beaten shipments in any month since July of 2021.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through October sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-02-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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