Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in May 2021 and the June Early Read

Tuesday, August 17, 2021 1:25:00 PM

June Preliminary Data

New home sales for June titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -2.3% from May, on a decline in single-section sales, while multi-section sales expanded. The month is tracking down -3.9% from June of 2020, but that month was the highest sales month we have recorded in our 9-year series and was likely juiced by delayed purchasing as the economy recovered from the pandemic lockdowns as well as the additional cash stimulus received by most Americans.

June sales are tracking above the more normal 2019 levels.

The forecast for new home sales in June based on sales titled to date is 1,478 (+/- 183).

We’re now tracking the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index for Manufactured Homes and prices received continue to climb running 31.9% above where they were a year earlier.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for June: 468 519 987
Change from May (Raw %): -4.9% 18.2% 6%
Change from May (Raw Units): -24 80 56
Change from May (SA %): -11.8% 7% -2.3%
Change from June of 2020 (%): -6% -1.9% -3.9%
Change from June of 2020 (Units): -30 -10 -40
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for June: 154 77 231
Change from May (Raw %): -2.5% 35.1% 7.4%
Change from May (Raw Units): -4 20 16
Change from May (SA %): -9.7% 17.5% 3.4%
Change from June of 2020 (%): -6.1% 8.5% -1.7%
Change from June of 2020 (Units): -10 6 -4

May Data

New home sales in May were up a seasonally adjusted 2.8% from April and are trailing only 2018 levels. The growth was driven by an expansion in single-section home sales as multi-section sales were down both from the previous month and from 2020 levels.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in May moved up to 1,535 (+/- 93).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for May: 635 618 1,253
Change from April (Raw %): 11.2% -1.6% 4.5%
Change from April (Raw Units): 64 -10 54
Change from April (SA %): 6% -2% 2.8%
Change from May of 2020 (%): 14.4% -3.1% 5%
Change from May of 2020 (Units): 80 -20 60

The time interval between when a home was constructed and when it was sold was lower for single-section homes than for multi-sections.

New Home Characteristics for MaySinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 90 93.5 90.5
Average Square Feet: 1,104 1,783 1,439

Travis County is on track to beat Liberty County for the most new manufactured home sales in May.

Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Travis 74 37%
Liberty 65 3.2%
Montgomery 54 -5.3%
Harris 46 -8%
Bexar 41 -6.8%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for May: 208 93 301
Change from April (Raw %): -3.7% -5.1% -4.1%
Change from April (Raw Units): -8 -5 -13
Change from April (SA %): 15.4% -10.1% 1.6%
Change from May of 2020 (%): -42.7% 12% -32.5%
Change from May of 2020 (Units): -155 10 -145

Annual Totals

The volume of new home sales titles picked up over the last month and sales to date are now at their highest level in our 9-year series. The current forecast for new home sales on the year has moved up to 16,253 (+/- 838)

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 3,603 3,794 7,397
Change from 2020 (%): 9.2% 3.2% 6%
Change from 2020 (Units): 304 116 420
New Home Characteristics for 2021SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 96 93 95
Average Square Feet: 1,102 1,794 1,457
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 371 23.7%
Travis 333 34.3%
Montgomery 326 3.8%
Harris 260 -5.5%
Bexar 228 31.8%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 1,290 628 1,918
Change from 2020 (%): -7.9% 29.5% 1.8%
Change from 2020 (Units): -110 143 33

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 461 562 1,023
February 463 449 912
March 720 707 1,427
April 643 735 1,378
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 211 111 322
February 160 87 247
March 253 123 376
April 240 115 355

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 8-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.