Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in June 2023 and the July Early Read

July Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales moved down in July a seasonally-adjusted -5.2% but came in +1.5% above July of 2022 as sales remain strong despite cooling slightly from the first six months of the year.

The forecast for new homes sold in July based on sales titled to date is 1,293 (+/- 88). The lower bound of the prediction interval is once again above the shipment total for the month, so we should have seven straight months of retail sales outpacing shipments.

June Data

New home sales titled to date for June moved down a seasonally adjusted -4.7% from the previous month but came in at the exact same total as June of 2022 tying the highest amount of sales for the month in the 12-year dataset. Recall that May new home sales were extraordinarily high and were likely pushed up by delayed sales from April due to rainfall, so while the month-over-month shows a decline new home sales still had an excellent June.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in June moved up slightly with the additional titling data to 1,599 (+/- 88). The raw total of new home sales is just two sales below shipments for the month to date and will move above shipments as more titles come in.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2023 are now up just +0.3% over 2022 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year. The growth continues to come from single-section home sales as multi-section sales remain below 2022's total. Like last year we've crested the 9,000 new home sales mark faster than the previous 10 years did, but the back half of 2022 was ultimately surpassed by the total volume of sales in the 2019-2021 selling years.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down to 16,386 (+/- 993).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are still Harris, Midland, Hidalgo, Montgomery, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Odessa, Houston, Spring, Denton, and Conroe.

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 9-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through May. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-09-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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