Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in June 2021 and the July Early Read

Wednesday, September 15, 2021 12:17:00 PM

July Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales moved up a seasonally adjusted 3.1% in July compared to the usual higher sales of June. Single-section home sales expanded with the raw total of 468 sales actually beating June’s total over the same titling duration, but sales for singles were lower than July of 2020.

Multi-section sales were up after accounting for seasonality, and were up a whole 13.1% from July of 2020.

The total for all home sales beat July of last year by 4.7%.

The forecast for new home sales in July based on sales titled to date is 1,443 (+/- 182).

There are a number of indicators pointing to a cooling in price inflation with manufacturers in our survey reporting that raw materials prices didn’t increase for the first time in eight months, the PPI index for manufactured home sales didn’t increase for the first time in 2021, and average sales prices for multi-section homes began to move sideways in February.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for July: 468 493 961
Change from June (Raw %): 0.4% -4.5% -2.1%
Change from June (Raw Units): 2 -23 -21
Change from June (SA %): 5.2% 2.6% 3.1%
Change from July of 2020 (%): -2.9% 13.1% 4.7%
Change from July of 2020 (Units): -14 57 43
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for July: 156 66 222
Change from June (Raw %): 2% -13.2% -3.1%
Change from June (Raw Units): 3 -10 -7
Change from June (SA %): -6.9% -11.1% -11.6%
Change from July of 2020 (%): -7.1% 1.5% -4.7%
Change from July of 2020 (Units): -12 1 -11

June Data

June sales titled to date are down both in the raw numbers and after seasonal adjustments compared to May, and sales for the month are down -5.6% from June of 2020. Last year sales peaked in the month of June which is much later than we usually see and was likely due to some combination of delayed purchasing from pandemic lockdowns, federal stimulus, and possible migration from urban to more rural housing locations with remote work options becoming wider spread.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in June moved up slightly to 1,481 (+/- 94).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for June: 577 629 1,206
Change from May (Raw %): -8.3% 2.4% -3%
Change from May (Raw Units): -52 15 -37
Change from May (SA %): -10.6% -0.6% -4.1%
Change from June of 2020 (%): -6.2% -5.1% -5.6%
Change from June of 2020 (Units): -38 -34 -72
New Home Characteristics for JuneSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 100 86 93
Average Square Feet: 1,095 1,797 1,461

Montgomery County is just one home sale ahead of Liberty County for June.

Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Montgomery 61 13%
Liberty 60 -7.7%
Travis 53 -27.4%
Harris 39 -15.2%
Bexar 38 -7.3%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for June: 215 105 320
Change from May (Raw %): 4.4% 12.9% 7%
Change from May (Raw Units): 9 12 21
Change from May (SA %): 1.3% 9.1% 5.1%
Change from June of 2020 (%): -3.6% 22.1% 3.6%
Change from June of 2020 (Units): -8 19 11

Annual Totals

June sales not keeping pace with a year ago has pulled 2021’s increase in sales lower to 4.3% over 2020.

The current forecast for new home sales on the year is 16,218 (+/- 809).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 4,237 4,537 8,774
Change from 2020 (%): 5.2% 3.5% 4.3%
Change from 2020 (Units): 210 154 364
New Home Characteristics for 2021SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 97 97 97
Average Square Feet: 1,101 1,793 1,459
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 431 15.2%
Montgomery 386 5.2%
Travis 377 23.6%
Harris 308 -7.2%
Bexar 266 31%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 1,590 759 2,349
Change from 2020 (%): -5% 30% 4%
Change from 2020 (Units): -84 175 91

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 467 571 1,038
February 465 463 928
March 730 729 1,459
April 665 766 1,431
May 680 688 1,368
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 267 130 397
February 163 88 251
March 259 127 386
April 255 123 378
May 229 101 330

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 9-14.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.