Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in July 2023 and the August Early Read

August Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date have moved up in August a seasonally-adjusted +3.3% over the previous month and came in +6.6% above August of 2022.

The forecast for new homes sold in August based on sales titled to date is 1,464 (+/- 76). The lower bound of the prediction interval is once again above the shipment total for the month, so we should have eight straight months of retail sales outpacing shipments after having no such months in the stretch between July of 2021 and December of 2022.

July Data

New home sales titled to date for July moved down a seasonally adjusted -1.2% from the previous month but came in +5.4% above July of 2022.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in July moved up with the additional titling data to 1,338 (+/- 76). The raw total of new home sales is above shipments for the month and will move higher as more titles come in.

The median age of single-section homes sold moved up to 162 days in July, suggesting that retailers cleared some older units that month, while the median age for all homes sold year-to-date moved lower but remains historically high for single-section homes.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2023 are now up +0.7% over 2022 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year. The majority of the growth is coming from single-section home sales, though multi-section sales are now above 2022’s total. Like last year we’ve crested the 10,500 new home sales mark faster than the previous 10 years did, but the back half of 2022 was ultimately surpassed by the total volume of sales in the 2019-2021 selling years.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down slightly to 16,314 (+/- 661).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are again Harris, Midland, Hidalgo, Montgomery, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Odessa, Donna, Houston, Kyle, Conroe, and Denton.

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 10-17.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through June. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-10-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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