Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in July 2021 and the August Early Read

Monday, October 18, 2021 12:22:00 PM

August Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date moved down a seasonally adjusted -9.5% in August from July and were down -6.7% from August of 2020. Single-section sales for the month fell -13.4% below equivalent 2020 sales while multi-section sales were slightly up.

The forecast for new home sales in August based on sales titled to date is 1,412 (+/- 181).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for August: 454 484 938
Change from July (Raw %): -3.8% -2.8% -3.3%
Change from July (Raw Units): -18 -14 -32
Change from July (SA %): -11.8% -6.9% -9.5%
Change from August of 2020 (%): -13.4% 0.6% -6.7%
Change from August of 2020 (Units): -70 3 -67
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for August: 180 59 239
Change from July (Raw %): 13.2% -10.6% 6.2%
Change from July (Raw Units): 21 -7 14
Change from July (SA %): 6.9% -10.4% 2%
Change from August of 2020 (%): 19.2% -11.9% 9.6%
Change from August of 2020 (Units): 29 -8 21

July Data

July new home sales titled to date were up a raw 2% from June and were up a seasonally adjusted 5.6%. Single section sales were flat over July of 2020 while strong multi-section sales growth pulled sales for all sizes up 5.1% over 2020.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in July moved up to 1,499 (+/- 95).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for July: 576 642 1,218
Change from June (Raw %): 0.5% 3.4% 2%
Change from June (Raw Units): 3 21 24
Change from June (SA %): 4.9% 6.4% 5.6%
Change from July of 2020 (%): 0% 10.1% 5.1%
Change from July of 2020 (Units): 0 59 59
New Home Characteristics for JulySinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 94 97 95
Average Square Feet: 1,123 1,796 1,478
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Liberty 56 -12.5%
Montgomery 55 3.8%
Harris 43 -2.3%
Travis 41 -43.8%
Bexar 29 -29.3%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for July: 199 92 291
Change from June (Raw %): -6.1% -12.4% -8.2%
Change from June (Raw Units): -13 -13 -26
Change from June (SA %): -14.5% -6.5% -9.7%
Change from July of 2020 (%): -3.9% 16.5% 1.7%
Change from July of 2020 (Units): -8 13 5

Annual Totals

The strong new home sales that occurred in the back half of 2020 continue to lower the gap between 2021 annual sales growth, which now stands at +2.5% over 2020, down from +4.3% a month ago.

The current forecast for new home sales on the year moved down to 16,107 (+/- 598).

The inclusion of June in the shipments less retail sales plot below, shows that like April of 2021, shipments are expected to have been higher than retail sales. That surplus did not occur in 2020 or 2019, and could signal that retailers were able to build back some inventory. We’ll keep watching to see if the decline in the median age of a new home reverses course later in the year.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 4,939 5,398 10,337
Change from 2020 (%): 1% 3.9% 2.5%
Change from 2020 (Units): 49 202 251
New Home Characteristics for 2021SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 95 96 95
Average Square Feet: 1,102 1,799 1,466
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 511 10.8%
Montgomery 434 0.2%
Travis 429 15.6%
Harris 368 -5.9%
Bexar 306 21.4%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 1,871 862 2,733
Change from 2020 (%): -3.7% 25.3% 3.9%
Change from 2020 (Units): -72 174 102

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 467 575 1,042
February 465 470 935
March 735 754 1,489
April 675 798 1,473
May 707 755 1,462
June 625 708 1,333
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 268 130 398
February 168 92 260
March 265 129 394
April 257 130 387
May 235 102 337
June 242 117 359

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 10-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-10-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.