Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in January 2022 and the February Early Read

Tuesday, April 19, 2022 10:09:58 AM

February Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date moved down a seasonally adjusted -6.8% in February over the previous month and up 22.7% over February of 2021 when Winter Storm Uri knocked sales and title work lower.

Total new home sales are currently tracking below 2019 and 2016 levels, but ahead of 2020 which ultimately set the peak for February sales.

The forecast for new homes sold in February based on the sales titled to date is 1,115 (+/- 183). The regression model has historically underestimated February sales at this point in the year, so take the over.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 348 382 730
Change from January (Raw %): -1.1% -4.3% -2.8%
Change from January (Raw Units): -4 -17 -21
Change from January (SA %): -4.8% -2.7% -6.8%
Change from February of 2021 (%): 11.2% 35.5% 22.7%
Change from February of 2021 (Units): 35 100 135
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 122 46 168
Change from January (Raw %): 8% 4.5% 7%
Change from January (Raw Units): 9 2 11
Change from January (SA %): -18.8% -2.3% -13.9%
Change from February of 2021 (%): 25.8% -4.2% 15.9%
Change from February of 2021 (Units): 25 -2 23

January Data

January new home sales titled to date are up a seasonally adjusted +8% from December and are up +14.3% from January of 2021. New home sales for the month are outpacing all previous years in the ten year data set.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in January moved down to 1,123 (+/- 99), which would place it just below the January peak set in 2020, but like the February forecast the regression model tends to miss low, take the over.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 416 481 897
Change from December (Raw %): -8.2% -18.8% -14.2%
Change from December (Raw Units): -37 -111 -148
Change from December (SA %): 15.1% 0.5% 8%
Change from January of 2021 (%): 15.2% 13.4% 14.3%
Change from January of 2021 (Units): 55 57 112
New Home Characteristics for JanuarySinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 99 95 97
Average Square Feet: 1,112 1,801 1,482
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Liberty 41 -8.9%
Montgomery 38 -28.3%
Bexar 36 50%
Harris 34 -19%
Hidalgo 25 38.9%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 163 69 232
Change from December (Raw %): -13.8% -6.8% -11.8%
Change from December (Raw Units): -26 -5 -31
Change from December (SA %): -0.7% 21% 6%
Change from January of 2021 (%): 14.8% 7.8% 12.6%
Change from January of 2021 (Units): 21 5 26

Annual Totals

New home sales in 2022 are up 16.4% over the previous year for all retail sales titled to date. Single-sections are up 9.9% while multi-section homes are up 23.2%.

The forecast for new home sales on the year opens at 16,054 (+/- 2,809).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 1,050 1,103 2,153
Change from 2021 (%): 9.9% 23.2% 16.4%
Change from 2021 (Units): 95 208 303
New Home Characteristics for 2022SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 107 96.5 102.5
Average Square Feet: 1,114 1,811 1,471
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Harris 112 49.3%
Liberty 100 13.6%
Montgomery 88 2.3%
Bexar 80 15.9%
Travis 54 -49.1%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 332 133 465
Change from 2021 (%): 7.8% -3.6% 4.3%
Change from 2021 (Units): 24 -5 19

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 4-18.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-04-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-04-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-04-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-04-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through December sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-04-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-04-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-04-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.