Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in December 2023 and the January Early Read

January Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in January titled to date have moved lower from last month a seasonally-adjusted -8% and are down -15.9% from Janaury of 2023.

The forecast for total new homes sold in January based on sales titled to date starts at 981 (+/- 76), which would put it as the first January not to break 1,000 home sales since 2018 and would represent the largest January expansion in aggregate inventory since 2018.

December Data

New home sales for December titled to date are up a seasonally adjusted +7.6% from the previous month and are up +6.3% from December of 2022.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in December moved up with the additional titling data to 1,138 (+/- 76). The upper bound of the prediction interval is just above the shipment total for the month, so we expect the December difference in shipments less sales to be near zero.

The single-section homes sold in December had a median age of 15 weeks, while multi-section homes were just over 9 and a half weeks old.

Annual Totals

New home sales finished our 2023 reporting year trailing 2022 by 164 homes, a -1.1% decrease from the previous year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Single-section home sales remain below 2022’s totals and multi-section sales fell behind by ten homes.

The forecast for new home sales on the year finished at 15,910 (+/- 80).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are again Midland, Montgomery, Hidalgo, Harris, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Conroe, Odessa, Donna, Pearland, Kyle, and Denton.

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 3-18.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through November. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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