Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in December 2021 and the January Early Read

Monday, March 21, 2022 1:55:28 PM

January Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date moved up a seasonally adjusted 3.8% in January over December of 2021. The year-over-year comparison could still be inflated as titling was playing catch up last year after being halted in February from Winter Storm Uri. The 754 homes sales titled to date are above 2020 sales levels.

The forecast for new homes sold in January based on the sales titled to date is 1,149 (+/- 183).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 353 401 754
Change from December (Raw %): -12.4% -15.2% -13.9%
Change from December (Raw Units): -50 -72 -122
Change from December (SA %): 6.4% -2% 3.8%
Change from January of 2021 (%): 16.1% 15.2% 15.6%
Change from January of 2021 (Units): 49 53 102
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 114 44 158
Change from December (Raw %): -17.4% -25.4% -19.8%
Change from December (Raw Units): -24 -15 -39
Change from December (SA %): -0.2% 9.2% 3.2%
Change from January of 2021 (%): 40.7% -2.2% 25.4%
Change from January of 2021 (Units): 33 -1 32

December Data

December new home sales titled to date are up a seasonally adjusted +14.1% from November’s soft sales total, riding a large uptick in multi-section sales and coming in above both 2020 and 2019 release day totals. Like the early data on January, the slowdown in titling due to Winter Storm Uri is inflating the December year-over-year change. December of 2020 ended up +2% over 2019 and that’s about where 2021 is currently tracking.

I have added the 12-month moving average comparison that we rolled into the shipment report at the beginning of this month into this retail sales report as well. Shipments continue to outpace sales.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in December moved up to 1,310 (+/- 98).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for December: 456 595 1,051
Change from November (Raw %): 4.8% 17.1% 11.5%
Change from November (Raw Units): 21 87 108
Change from November (SA %): 8.2% 19.3% 14.1%
Change from December of 2020 (%): 12.6% 12.5% 12.5%
Change from December of 2020 (Units): 51 66 117
New Home Characteristics for DecemberSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 98.5 90 92
Average Square Feet: 1,109 1,823 1,513
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Montgomery 53 71%
Harris 45 21.6%
Liberty 45 2.3%
Bastrop 24 -17.2%
Bexar 24 -27.3%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for December: 189 74 263
Change from November (Raw %): -4.1% -15.9% -7.7%
Change from November (Raw Units): -8 -14 -22
Change from November (SA %): -6.5% -15.5% -10.9%
Change from December of 2020 (%): 13.2% -14.9% 3.5%
Change from December of 2020 (Units): 22 -13 9

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2021 are flat with 2020 levels as of the December release, we expect 2021 sales to ultimately be down around -4.3% after all the title work settles.

The final forecast for new home sales on the year moved up to 16,183 (+/- 319). Shipments came in at 17,681 total homes, so the difference in shipments to sales for 2021 is expected to be approximately 1,498 homes.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 7,244 8,431 15,675
Change from 2020 (%): -1.6% 1.4% 0%
Change from 2020 (Units): -118 113 -5
New Home Characteristics for 2021SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 94 95 94
Average Square Feet: 1,101 1,812 1,484
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 755 4.7%
Montgomery 623 -6%
Travis 588 -3.8%
Harris 562 -3.4%
Bexar 481 9.1%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 titled to date: 3,196 1,392 4,588
Change from 2020 (%): 7.5% 24.6% 12.2%
Change from 2020 (Units): 223 275 498

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 474 586 1,060 -3.0
February 473 476 949 -19.0
March 754 789 1,543 15.8
April 726 836 1,562 29.8
May 761 810 1,571 10.6
June 673 813 1,486 -7.5
July 669 823 1,492 4.6
August 621 729 1,350 -9.5
September 646 733 1,379 -1.9
October 506 674 1,180 -15.1
November 485 563 1,048 -12.7
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 287 134 421 43.2
February 177 94 271 -24.1
March 400 152 552 46.8
April 283 138 421 49.3
May 266 118 384 -31.2
June 267 144 411 6.5
July 304 125 429 17.9
August 283 118 401 14.2
September 276 104 380 25.4
October 245 90 335 3.4
November 217 101 318 32.5

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 3-18.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through November sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-03-18. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.