Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in April 2023 and the May Early Read

May Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in May for titles issued to date jumped to their highest total for the month in our series with the seasonally adjusted total at +14.2% over the previous month. New home sales are also up +23.3% from May of 2022. The product mix for May was about as even as it gets with just two more multi-section home sales titled than single-sections.

The forecast for new homes sold in May based on sales titled to date is 1,692 (+/- 91). The lower bound of the prediction interval is once again above the shipment total for the month, so we should get four straight months of retail sales outpacing shipments.

With the additional sales data titled to date, the median age for new homes sold on the year moved down again from where it was last month.

April Data

New home sales titled to date for April are down a seasonally adjusted -8% from the previous month, and are down -12.9% from April of 2022. The raw total of 1,106 new homes sold has already been surpassed by sales titled to date for May.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in April moved down slightly with the additional titling data to 1,322 (+/- 91). The raw total of new home sales is just six units below shipments for the month to date and will soon move ahead.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2023 are up +2.9% over 2022 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year. New retail home sales surpassed 6,000 homes faster than any previous year in the series since before the Great Financial Crisis.

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are currently Harris, Montgomery, Midland, Hidalgo, and Ector.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Odessa, Houston, Conroe, and Spring.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down slightly to 16,747 (+/- 1,551).

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 7-17.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Retail sales have not beaten shipments in any month since July of 2021.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through March sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-07-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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