Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in April 2022 and the May Early Read

Thursday, July 21, 2022 10:56:24 AM

May Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date moved down a seasonally adjusted -1.7% in May over the previous month, but the raw total was up +2.7% over May of 2021.

While the May data is showing some softening relative to April the headline decline has more to do with elevated April sales in comparison to the two previous Aprils than it does with May sales being low. New home sales are currently running right at the pre-COVID 2019 May sales pace.

The forecast for new homes sold in May based on the sales titled to date is 1,407 (+/- 193). I’ve been working on two additional forecasting models for sales and while they need additional testing before I release them into the wild they both have sales higher than 1,407, take the over.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for May: 464 496 960
Change from April (Raw %): -4.1% -6.2% -5.2%
Change from April (Raw Units): -20 -33 -53
Change from April (SA %): -1.2% 3% -1.7%
Change from May of 2021 (%): -5.9% 12.2% 2.7%
Change from May of 2021 (Units): -29 54 25
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for May: 222 85 307
Change from April (Raw %): 42.3% 32.8% 39.5%
Change from April (Raw Units): 66 21 87
Change from April (SA %): 50.6% 41.8% 45.5%
Change from May of 2021 (%): 39.6% 46.6% 41.5%
Change from May of 2021 (Units): 63 27 90

April Data

April new home sales titled to date are up a seasonally adjusted +2.9% over March, and are up +5.3% over 2021.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in April moved up to 1,531 (+/- 108).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for April: 589 681 1,270
Change from March (Raw %): 0.2% 1% 0.6%
Change from March (Raw Units): 1 7 8
Change from March (SA %): 8.2% 1.3% 2.9%
Change from April of 2021 (%): 3% 7.4% 5.3%
Change from April of 2021 (Units): 17 47 64
New Home Characteristics for AprilSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 106 105 105.5
Average Square Feet: 1,100 1,848 1,501
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Montgomery 52 13%
Liberty 51 -3.8%
Harris 46 -22%
Bexar 42 -19.2%
Williamson 29 93.3%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for April: 200 90 290
Change from March (Raw %): -9.9% -2.2% -7.6%
Change from March (Raw Units): -22 -2 -24
Change from March (SA %): 3.4% 11.3% 10.3%
Change from April of 2021 (%): -7.8% -10% -8.5%
Change from April of 2021 (Units): -17 -10 -27

Annual Totals

The titling rate for new home sales picked up at TDHCA over the past month, and new home sales in 2022 are now leading all previous sales years since 2012, and are currently up +10.1% over last year for all retail sales titled to date.

Multi-section sales have been leading the way, but single-sections sales accelerated and are now up over 2021.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down slightly to 15,959 (+/- 1,532).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 2,982 3,395 6,377
Change from 2021 (%): 4.2% 15.8% 10.1%
Change from 2021 (Units): 120 463 583
New Home Characteristics for 2022SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 110 101 106
Average Square Feet: 1,107 1,833 1,493
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 283 -5%
Harris 257 14.7%
Montgomery 236 -6.3%
Bexar 215 13.2%
Smith 144 114.9%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 1,108 462 1,570
Change from 2021 (%): 4.2% -9.4% -0.2%
Change from 2021 (Units): 45 -48 -3

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 482 562 1,044 6.7
February 459 555 1,014 18.9
March 622 758 1,380 3.0
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 202 83 285 -8.7
February 185 69 254 3.7
March 240 107 347 -4.1

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 7-20 shows 2022 lagging the pre-covid 2019 sales levels from February on.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. The February difference should be the largest on record.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through March sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-07-20. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.