Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in September 2023
September Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers expanded in September moving up a seasonally-adjusted +2.9% from the previous month. The increase puts the seasonally adjusted total at its highest level thus far on the year for the sixth straight month and we expect that trend to continue next month.
September shipments were down -17.9% below September of last year but we expect the year-under-year trend to flip next month.
On the demand side placements continue to outpace shipments and have done so for every month from January through July for certain. The prediction interval for August placements has moved above shipments for that month so we’ve got a good shot at seeing that streak extend one more month, and the September placement forecast is mostly above the 1,243 homes shipped for that month. The 95% lower bound is just below the shipment mark so September could break the streak.
The 12-month moving average for shipments continued to move lower in September and is well below the 12-month moving average for retail sales through June. The 12-month moving average for shipments is at its lowest level since September of 2017.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 599 | 644 | 1,243 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -12.6% | -6.8% | -9.7% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -86 | -47 | -133 |
| Change from August (SA %): | 1.7% | -0.4% | 2.9% |
| Change from September of 2022 (%): | -26.1% | -8.4% | -17.9% |
| Change from September of 2022 (Units): | -212 | -59 | -271 |
September Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production expanded more in September than shipments once gain beating the forecast this time by +131 homes. The seasonally-adjusted total moved up +4.9% from the previous month. In comparison to September of 2022 the raw total of homes was down -16.2%, but like shipments the year-under-year comparison should flip to positive next month.
Shipments to out of state locations remain elevated.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 1,753 | 579 | 2,380 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -7.1% | -5.2% | -4.8% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -133 | -32 | -121 |
| Change from August (SA %): | 4.9% | NA | 6.1% |
| Change from September of 2022 (%): | -16.2% | -3.3% | -14.8% |
| Change from September of 2022 (Units): | -338 | -20 | -412 |
October Outlook
The forecasting models have October shipments at 1,350 (+/- 251) and Texas factory production at 1,687 (+/- 298) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for October signaled a further increase in run rates and the production model in particular looks to be giving too much weight to last year’s pull back.
The over is a lock for Texas production and I’d lean slightly that direction for shipments as well.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for October.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total is now down -30.3% from 2022 and the Texas plant production total is down -30.1%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved down to 14,398 (+/- 583) while forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 19,187 (+/- 760). The forecasted totals put 2023 shipments just above 2014 and annual production just under 2019.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 5,088 | 5,662 | 10,750 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -34.8% | -25.7% | -30.3% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -2,720 | -1,958 | -4,678 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 14,175 | 3,969 | 19,477 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -30.1% | -26.2% | -29.6% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -6,097 | -1,411 | -8,171 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.