Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in September 2022
September Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to contract in September with the seasonally adjusted rate coming in -9.3% below August, and the raw total for the month posting the first year-over-year decline in 2022, albeit just three homes under last year’s level. September shipments marked the third straight month of seasonally adjusted declines as Texas retailers have pulled back their deliveries from the seasonally adjusted peak they set in June.
The product mix remained majority single-section, with single floor deliveries making up 54% of the units shipped for the month.
The 1,514 total homes shipped was -235 homes below the mean forecast, but landed in the low end of the modeled forecast range.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 811 | 703 | 1,514 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -17% | -12.1% | -14.8% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -166 | -97 | -263 |
| Change from August (SA %): | -12.1% | -6.3% | -9.3% |
| Change from September of 2021 (%): | 19.6% | -16.2% | -0.2% |
| Change from September of 2021 (Units): | 133 | -136 | -3 |
September Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production also continued to slow down in September with the seasonally adjusted total coming in -7.4% below August. The continued product mix shift towards singles kept the year-over-year numbers positive, while the minimum number of floors showed a reduction from last year’s level.
The raw production total came in -187 homes below the modeled forecast.
Homes shipped out of state were still elevated above 2021.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 2,091 | 599 | 2,792 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -14.1% | -14.8% | -12.9% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -342 | -104 | -412 |
| Change from August (SA %): | -7.4% | NA | -6% |
| Change from September of 2021 (%): | 4.3% | 8.7% | -1% |
| Change from September of 2021 (Units): | 86 | 48 | -29 |
October Outlook
The forecasting models have October shipments at 1,794 (+/- 317) and Texas factory production at 2,410 (+/- 384) homes, but those are built off of the historical trend and are likely over optimistic. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) signaled that run rates were lower in October and a simple model of September’s average run rates multiplied by the number of business weekdays puts estimates for both shipments and production at the very bottoms of the official forecasted ranges.
The unders are a lock.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for October.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of September totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up +16.7% over 2021 through this same point in the calendar year, and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up +15.7%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves down to 20,324 (+/- 720) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 26,737 (+/- 868). Expect these to move lower when October data comes in.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 7,820 | 7,608 | 15,428 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 29.9% | 5.7% | 16.7% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,801 | 409 | 2,210 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 20,272 | 5,380 | 27,636 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 15.7% | 11.5% | 13.3% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 2,750 | 557 | 3,250 |
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