Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in September 2021
September Shipments
Manufactured home shipments moved sideways in September with a reduction in business days offset by an increase in plant productivity and in the share of homes shipped to Texas locations from local manufacturers.
Single-section shipments declined while multi-section shipments expanded, moving the product mix back up to 55% multi-section.
After seasonal adjustment, total shipments were up appoximately 1% over last month.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 678 | 839 | 1,517 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -5.8% | 5% | -0.1% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -42 | 40 | -2 |
| Change from August (SA %): | -7.2% | 5.8% | 0.7% |
| Change from September of 2020 (%): | 0.6% | 22.5% | 11.6% |
| Change from September of 2020 (Units): | 4 | 154 | 158 |
September Production
Texas MH plant production also appears to have moved sideways in September with rising productivity making up for the loss of one business day in comparison to the previous month when looking at the minimum number of floors produced.
The product mix shift back towards multi-sections lowered the total home comparison to the previous month in both raw and seasonally adjusted terms, but the 1% increase in seasonally adjusted floor production tells the real story.
Homes shipped out of state moved down from the previous month, but remain well above the past ten year historical levels.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 2,005 | 551 | 2,821 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -2.7% | -5.7% | 0% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -55 | -33 | 1 |
| Change from August (SA %): | -1.8% | -6.5% | 1.2% |
| Change from September of 2020 (%): | 10.8% | 11.5% | 14.4% |
| Change from September of 2020 (Units): | 196 | 57 | 355 |
October Outlook
Our forecasting model has October shipments at 1,605 (+/- 317), which seems a bit optimistic. Typically October is the second highest month for shipments behind March, but despite October being a long month the way the calendar fell in 2021 it has no additional business days over September this year. The historical data that the model is built from also has the large influx of FEMA shipments in the wake of Hurricane Harvey pushing October’s seasonal factor up too.
Take the under, though I expect month-over-month expansion based on our Texas Manufactured Housing Survey results.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for October.
Annual Totals
Home production is up 13.4% on the year and shipments to Texas retailers are up 10.8%.
The annual forecast moved up to 17,576 (+/- 676).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2021 YTD: | 6,019 | 7,199 | 13,218 |
| Change from 2020 (%): | 7.7% | 13.6% | 10.8% |
| Change from 2020 (Units): | 430 | 861 | 1,291 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2021 YTD: | 17,522 | 4,823 | 24,386 |
| Change from 2020 (%): | 13.4% | 22.4% | 13.3% |
| Change from 2020 (Units): | 2,068 | 884 | 2,863 |
Charts
Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2020.