Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in November 2024
November Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers in November came in almost spot on with the forecast missing by just 14 homes to land at 1,519 total homes shipped. In seasonally-adjusted terms the total for the month was down -1.7% from the previous month, but I believe the adjustment is overweighting the October value as the rate of homes shipped per day appears to have increased again to 80 homes a day.
Compared to last year the November shipment total was up 9.2% with multi-section shipments making up all of the year-over-year increase.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for November: | 639 | 880 | 1,519 |
| Change from October (Raw %): | -15.4% | -14.7% | -15% |
| Change from October (Raw Units): | -116 | -152 | -268 |
| Change from October (SA %): | -0.8% | -5.4% | -1.7% |
| Change from November of 2023 (%): | -0.2% | 17.2% | 9.2% |
| Change from November of 2023 (Units): | -1 | 129 | 128 |
November Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production also beat the point forecast again in November moving up a seasonally-adjusted +2.3% from the previous month and up +5.6% over the raw total for November of 2023. Once again the expansion in floors produced was even stronger with year-over-year growth hitting +9.1%.
The minimum number of floors built per day rate moved up to 140 per production day, and is now running at the highest rate since July of 2022.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for November: | 1,848 | 442 | 2,660 |
| Change from October (Raw %): | -14.7% | -13.3% | -14.2% |
| Change from October (Raw Units): | -319 | -68 | -442 |
| Change from October (SA %): | 2.3% | NA | 1.1% |
| Change from November of 2023 (%): | 5.6% | -5.4% | 9.1% |
| Change from November of 2023 (Units): | 98 | -25 | 221 |
December Outlook
The forecasting models have December shipments at 1,364 (+/- 206) and Texas factory production at 1,652 (+/- 226) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for December showed an increase in run rates for roughly 35% of the market.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for December.
Annual Totals
The shipment total for 2024 is now up +25% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +19.2%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moved down slightly to 18,211 (+/- 206) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down as well to 22,847 (+/- 226).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 7,425 | 9,422 | 16,847 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 16.8% | 32.3% | 25% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 1,067 | 2,300 | 3,367 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 21,197 | 5,435 | 29,874 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 19.2% | 8.7% | 22.2% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 3,421 | 434 | 5,423 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.