Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in May 2022
May Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved down -1.3% in May over the previous month in raw totals with homes coming into the state not enough to offset an increase in homes shipped out of the state by Texas factories. Despite the decline in the raw total, the seasonal-adjustment put shipments at their highest monthly level in our 10 years of data and up +1.1% over April.
The raw total of shipments came in +46 homes above the forecast.
The product mix remained at the 51% multi-section mark, with shipments of multiple section homes beating single-section shipments for the third month in a row.
Compared to one year ago shipments were up a hefty +28.1% for May. Retail sales data lags, but we’re not seeing that same year-over-year gains in May sales titled thus far, and the gap between homes shipped and placed is reaching its highest difference in over a decade.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for May: | 867 | 895 | 1,762 |
| Change from April (Raw %): | -1.1% | -1.5% | -1.3% |
| Change from April (Raw Units): | -10 | -14 | -24 |
| Change from April (SA %): | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Change from May of 2021 (%): | 37% | 20.6% | 28.1% |
| Change from May of 2021 (Units): | 234 | 153 | 387 |
May Production
Texas manufactured housing factory production maintained its elevated pace with the seasonally-adjusted total of homes ticking higher again for the third month in a row and marking the new series high.
Production came in +128 homes over the forecast.
While production was up in seasonally-adjusted terms the raw data appeared flat despite the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey results from last month suggesting a further increase in run rates. The lack of floor data for out-of-state shipments however, could have hidden an expansion.
The production share shipped out of state continues to grow with the 634 total of homes sent marking the highest monthly total since December of 2016 when FEMA units were going to help the Louisiana flood relief efforts.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for May: | 2,330 | 634 | 3,200 |
| Change from April (Raw %): | -0.1% | 4.3% | -0.4% |
| Change from April (Raw Units): | -2 | 26 | -14 |
| Change from April (SA %): | 1.7% | NA | 0.6% |
| Change from May of 2021 (%): | 23.6% | 17.2% | 22.7% |
| Change from May of 2021 (Units): | 445 | 93 | 591 |
June Outlook
The forecasting models have June shipments at 1,725 (+/- 327) and Texas factory production at 2,270 (+/- 382) homes.
With 22 production days in the month the TMHS responses for June say take the over.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of May’s totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up +17.2% and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up +17.4%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves up to 20,292 (+/- 2,018) and forecasted Texas plant production moves up to 26,768 (+/- 2,394).
For the first time since we began collecting manufacturer survey data in 2020, respondents are now signaling that the expansion in run rates may come to an end in the second half of 2022.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 4,305 | 4,370 | 8,675 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 27.4% | 8.7% | 17.2% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 926 | 349 | 1,275 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 11,371 | 2,984 | 15,607 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 17.4% | 14.4% | 15.6% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,683 | 375 | 2,101 |
Charts