Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in June 2023
June Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers expanded again in June for the third straight month with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +1.7% from the previous month.
Despite the month-over-month increase June shipments were down -30.8% below June of last year. Run rates hit their highest levels in June and July of 2022 and then declined for the rest of the year, so we should see one more large year-under-year comparison next month and then the gap should start to narrow more and more each month if current trends continue.
On the end consumer demand side April and May retail sales having surpassed shipment totals, and June sales are on pace to beat this month’s total as well.
The 12-month moving average for shipments in June has moved below the 12-month moving average for retail sales through March. You can see in the chart that when the shipment moving-average crosses below the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for June: | 634 | 738 | 1,372 |
| Change from May (Raw %): | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% |
| Change from May (Raw Units): | 39 | 38 | 77 |
| Change from May (SA %): | 3.5% | -0.8% | 1.7% |
| Change from June of 2022 (%): | -35.2% | -26.5% | -30.8% |
| Change from June of 2022 (Units): | -345 | -266 | -611 |
June Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production continued to expand in June as well with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +2.4% from the previous month. In comparison to June of 2022 the raw total of homes was down -30.0%.
The 1,781 total homes produced makes 2017 the closest analog for current Texas plant production over the last few months.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for June: | 1,781 | 470 | 2,473 |
| Change from May (Raw %): | 2.4% | -5.1% | 3% |
| Change from May (Raw Units): | 42 | -25 | 73 |
| Change from May (SA %): | 0.4% | NA | 2.3% |
| Change from June of 2022 (%): | -30% | -26.6% | -29.7% |
| Change from June of 2022 (Units): | -762 | -170 | -1045 |
July Outlook
The forecasting models have July shipments at 1,089 (+/- 204) and Texas factory production at 1,374 (+/- 265) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for July signaled a further increase in run rates on net, but with the holiday closure July is a hard month to estimate the total number of production days that plants were actually building. I’d go with the under on shipments and the production over/under is a coin flip.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total is down -33.5% and Texas plant production is down -33.9%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved up to 14,364 (+/- 1,281) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 18,762 (+/- 1,490). Those totals would put 2023 around 2014 for shipments and right in between 2015 and 2019 for production.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 3,291 | 3,795 | 7,086 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -37.6% | -29.5% | -33.5% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -1,981 | -1,591 | -3,572 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 9,193 | 2,422 | 12,765 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -33.9% | -33.2% | -33.3% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -4,721 | -1,202 | -6,372 |
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