Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in June 2022
June Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers expanded in June coming in on the high side of the forecast and topping last month’s seasonally adjusted peak by moving up an additional +5% over May.
The raw total of shipments came in +251 homes above the forecast.
The product mix remained at the 51% multi-section mark, with shipments of multiple section homes beating single-section shipments for the fourth month in a row.
Compared to one year ago shipments were up +26.6% for June, and both years had the same number of production days.
Last month we called out that retail sales were not showing the expansion that shipments had in May, but with the titles processed so far June sales are tracking very high.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for June: | 979 | 1,004 | 1,983 |
| Change from May (Raw %): | 12.9% | 12.2% | 12.5% |
| Change from May (Raw Units): | 112 | 109 | 221 |
| Change from May (SA %): | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5% |
| Change from June of 2021 (%): | 40.5% | 15.5% | 26.6% |
| Change from June of 2021 (Units): | 282 | 135 | 417 |
June Production
Texas manufactured housing factory production expanded as well to a new seasonal high, though the increase was at a slightly lower rate than shipments as Texas retailers received a larger share of June production than they had in May.
The raw production total came in +289 homes over the forecast.
Total homes shipped out-of-state remained robust with the total number of homes moving past last month’s peak.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for June: | 2,543 | 640 | 3,518 |
| Change from May (Raw %): | 9.1% | 0.9% | 9.9% |
| Change from May (Raw Units): | 213 | 6 | 318 |
| Change from May (SA %): | 4.2% | NA | 4.3% |
| Change from June of 2021 (%): | 21.9% | 11.7% | 21.1% |
| Change from June of 2021 (Units): | 457 | 67 | 612 |
July Outlook
The forecasting models have July shipments at 1,588 (+/- 279) and Texas factory production at 2,080 (+/- 331) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) signaled that run rates declined, and the July 4th holiday makes it tricky to know exactly how many days of production occurred, but regardless I’d still take the over.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of June totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up 18.9% and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up 18.2%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves up to 21,557 (+/- 1,757) and forecasted Texas plant production moves up to 27,702 (+/- 1,992).
If run rates start declining in July and beyond, the prediction interval will start converging towards the lower side of the current forecast, take the under.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 5,284 | 5,374 | 10,658 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 29.6% | 9.9% | 18.9% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,208 | 484 | 1,692 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 13,914 | 3,624 | 19,125 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 18.2% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 2,140 | 442 | 2,713 |
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