Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in July 2023
July Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to expand in July for the fourth straight month with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +0.2% from the previous month and reaching its highest level on the year.
Despite the month-over-month increase July shipments were down -29.3% below July of last year. Production started contracting last year in August, so the large year-under-year comparisons should begin narrowing with next month’s release.
On the demand side placements continue to outpace shipments and should do so for every month from January through July.
The 12-month moving average for shipments in July is below the 12-month moving average for retail sales through April. April retail placements were low compared to 2022 but when May rolls in next month the retail sales trend will start to move upward.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 513 | 532 | 1,045 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -19.1% | -27.9% | -23.8% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -121 | -206 | -327 |
| Change from June (SA %): | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Change from July of 2022 (%): | -31.4% | -27.2% | -29.3% |
| Change from July of 2022 (Units): | -235 | -199 | -434 |
July Production
Texas manufactured housing plant total home production also expanded in July with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +0.6% from the previous month. In comparison to July of 2022 the raw total of homes was down -26.8%.
The expansion in total homes produced was in part due to the product mix moving closer to 50/50 with multi-section homes moving down to 51% of output.
The 1,343 total homes produced was just 31 homes below the forecast.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 1,343 | 357 | 1,831 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -24.6% | -24% | -26% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -438 | -113 | -642 |
| Change from June (SA %): | 0.6% | NA | 0.1% |
| Change from July of 2022 (%): | -26.8% | -21.4% | -27.2% |
| Change from July of 2022 (Units): | -491 | -97 | -684 |
August Outlook
The forecasting models have August shipments at 1,288 (+/- 241) and Texas factory production at 1,706 (+/- 284) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for August signaled a further increase in run rates and the forecasting models are being overly pessimistic based on the pull back in shipments last year.
Take the overs.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total is down -33% and Texas plant production is down -33.1%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved down to 14,238 (+/- 1,038) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 18,517 (+/- 1,244). The totals continue to put 2023 around 2014 for shipments and right in between 2015 and 2019 for production.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 3,804 | 4,327 | 8,131 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -36.8% | -29.3% | -33% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -2,216 | -1,790 | -4,006 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 10,536 | 2,779 | 14,596 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -33.1% | -31.9% | -32.6% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -5,212 | -1,299 | -7,056 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.