Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in July 2022
July Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers remained elevated in July coming in a seasonally adjusted -0.2% below the peak set last month. Homes shipped to Texas retailers from out-of-state plants kept shipments aloft, as Texas production contracted for the month.
The raw total of shipments came in -109 below the point forecast.
The product mix shifted to 49% multi-section, with shipments of single-section homes beating multi-section shipments for the first time since February.
July shipments were up +21.6% over July of 2021. Varying plant closures around Independence Day make it difficult to estimate the number of production days for the month.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 748 | 731 | 1,479 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -23.6% | -27.2% | -25.4% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -231 | -273 | -504 |
| Change from June (SA %): | -0.3% | -5.6% | -0.2% |
| Change from July of 2021 (%): | 37.2% | 8.9% | 21.6% |
| Change from July of 2021 (Units): | 203 | 60 | 263 |
July Production
Texas manufactured housing factory production contracted in July with the seasonally adjusted total coming in -3.8% below last month’s peak.
The raw production total home count came in -246 homes below the forecast.
The number of homes shipped out of state fell -10.3% below July of last year as the share of homes shipped out of state dropped to its lowest level in 10 months. While total production was lower than last month, it still came in 9% over July of last year.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 1,834 | 454 | 2,515 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -27.9% | -29.1% | -28.5% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -709 | -186 | -1003 |
| Change from June (SA %): | -3.8% | NA | -4.4% |
| Change from July of 2021 (%): | 9% | -10.3% | 7.8% |
| Change from July of 2021 (Units): | 151 | -52 | 182 |
August Outlook
The forecasting models have August shipments at 1,829 (+/- 326) and Texas factory production at 2,342 (+/- 373) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) signaled that run rates declined further in August, but the calendar aligned for the max possible 23 production days, I’m leaning towards the over, but it’s a coin flip.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of July totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up 19.2% and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up 17%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves down to 20,908 (+/- 1,360) and forecasted Texas plant production moves down to 26,974 (+/- 1,497).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 6,032 | 6,105 | 12,137 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 30.5% | 9.8% | 19.2% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,411 | 544 | 1,955 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 15,748 | 4,078 | 21,640 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 17% | 10.6% | 15.4% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 2,291 | 390 | 2,895 |
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