Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in January 2022
January Shipments
Manufactured home shipments came in just 28 homes below the forecast in January rising a seasonally adjusted 1.0% from December on continued expansion in single-section home shipments.
Shipments were pushed slightly lower than expected by an increase in out of state shipments by Texas plants, and a very low level of shipments coming in from plants outside the state. Just 28 homes were shipped into the state this month, down -56.3% from January of 2021.
For the second straight month more single-section homes were shipped to Texas retailers than multi-section homes, and the combined total of 1,551 homes shipped was up 6.4% from a year ago.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for January: | 783 | 768 | 1,551 |
| Change from December (Raw %): | 8% | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| Change from December (Raw Units): | 58 | 74 | 132 |
| Change from December (SA %): | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1% |
| Change from January of 2021 (%): | 21% | -5.3% | 6.4% |
| Change from January of 2021 (Units): | 136 | -43 | 93 |
January Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production for January came in 40 homes over the forecast, increasing a seasonally adjusted 3.6% over December and finishing the month up 12.7% over January of 2021.
The min number of floors built was up a seasonally adjusted 4.3%, so plant productivity improvements were strong to start the year and were somewhat understated by the product mix in the number of total homes produced.
In seasonally adjusted terms production is at the highest level it’s been in the series since the chattel lending crunch of the early aughts.
The expansion in production was in line with the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey results from last month.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for January: | 2,120 | 597 | 2,875 |
| Change from December (Raw %): | 12.3% | 11.8% | 13.5% |
| Change from December (Raw Units): | 232 | 63 | 341 |
| Change from December (SA %): | 3.6% | NA | 4.3% |
| Change from January of 2021 (%): | 12.7% | 22.6% | 8.4% |
| Change from January of 2021 (Units): | 239 | 110 | 222 |
February Outlook
The forecasting models have February shipments at 1,489 (+/- 291) and Texas plant production at 1,940 (+/- 331) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey results for February showed a large majority of plants were able to increase their run rates over January.
Take the over on Texas plant production.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for February.
Annual Totals
The forecasts for annual Texas shipments moved down to 18,342 (+/- 2,989) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 24,930 (+/- 2,756).
I’ve added a new chart showing the 12-month moving average for shipments and retail sales to help provide clarity on how they are moving in comparison to one another. One note of caution is that the last few data points for retail sales will always be slightly biased downward as title work continues to come in for sales that occurred, but the moving average should smooth some of that out. The current downward trend seen in sales is not all due to late title work though, there was a slow down in sales during October and November with December sales picking back up. As you can see in the chart, sales were running above shipments from June of 2019 to June of 2021, and shipments need to run higher than sales for backlog lengths to come down.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 783 | 768 | 1,551 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 21% | -5.3% | 6.4% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 136 | -43 | 93 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 2,120 | 597 | 2,875 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 12.7% | 22.6% | 8.4% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 239 | 110 | 222 |
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