Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in December 2023
December Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to expand in December moving up a seasonally-adjusted +6% from the previous month and beating the forecast. The increase continues to push the seasonally adjusted total to the highest level thus far on the year for the ninth straight month and to a level that only 2017 and 2021 surpassed.
The December shipment total was +9% above December of 2022 and year-over-year gains are expected for the foreseeable future as run rates remain at their highest levels since September of 2022.
On the demand side placements have outpaced shipments through September, the sales forecast for October is now dead even with shipments for that month and while we still expect aggregate inventory to rise for November, December sales are currently forecasted to beat shipments.
The 12-month moving average for shipments moved up again with the December gains. The 12-month moving average for shipments remains below where the 12-month moving average for retail sales is through September of 2022.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for December: | 560 | 645 | 1,205 |
| Change from November (Raw %): | -12.5% | -14.1% | -13.4% |
| Change from November (Raw Units): | -80 | -106 | -186 |
| Change from November (SA %): | 7.1% | 3.1% | 6% |
| Change from December of 2022 (%): | 12.4% | 6.1% | 9% |
| Change from December of 2022 (Units): | 62 | 37 | 99 |
December Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production expanded further in December but came in just under the forecast moving up a seasonally-adjusted +3.9% from the previous month.
In comparison to December of 2022 the raw total of homes produced was up +6.4%.
Shipments to out of state locations were again up year-over-year as were the minimum possible number of floors produced.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for December: | 1,457 | 332 | 2,046 |
| Change from November (Raw %): | -16.7% | -28.9% | -16.1% |
| Change from November (Raw Units): | -293 | -135 | -393 |
| Change from November (SA %): | 3.9% | NA | 2.5% |
| Change from December of 2022 (%): | 6.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% |
| Change from December of 2022 (Units): | 88 | 9 | 71 |
January Outlook
The forecasting models have January shipments at 1,390 (+/- 258) and Texas factory production at 1,591 (+/- 286) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for January signaled further increases in run rates so both overs are looking good.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for January.
Annual Totals
The annual shipment total finished 2023 down -23.1% and Texas plant production was down -23.4% from 2022.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 opens at 16,563 (+/- 3,415) and forecasted Texas plant production opens at 20,750 (+/- 4,024).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 6,918 | 7,767 | 14,685 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -27.9% | -18.3% | -23.1% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -2,676 | -1,745 | -4,421 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 19,233 | 5,333 | 26,497 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -23.4% | -20% | -22.9% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -5,874 | -1,331 | -7,881 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.