Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in August 2022
August Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers slowed down in August with the seasonally adjusted rate coming in -11.8% below July.
The rate of homes shipped per day moved down to the levels we were seeing in the January to February time frame, as homes shipped to Texas retailers from out-of-state plants moved to their lowest levels since the start of the year, while Texas production shipped out of state moved up to the highest level yet this year.
Despite the relative decline to the past five months of elevated shipments, the raw total of homes for August was up 17% over August of 2021 and came in just -52 homes below the point forecast.
There was a large shift in the product mix towards single-section deliveries which made up 55% of the units shipped for the month.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for August: | 977 | 800 | 1,777 |
| Change from July (Raw %): | 30.6% | 9.4% | 20.1% |
| Change from July (Raw Units): | 229 | 69 | 298 |
| Change from July (SA %): | -3.8% | -11.7% | -11.8% |
| Change from August of 2021 (%): | 35.7% | 0.1% | 17% |
| Change from August of 2021 (Units): | 257 | 1 | 258 |
August Production
Texas manufactured housing factory production continued to move lower in August with the seasonally adjusted total coming in -1.8% below July. The shift towards singles softened the decline as can be seen by the floor data that was down a seasonally adjusted -5.1% from July respectively.
The raw production total came in +91 homes above the forecast and represented a +18.1% increase over August of last year.
There was a jump in homes shipped out of state with a total of 703 homes headed to retailers outside of Texas. That’s the highest total of homes leaving the state in the 10-year dataset.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for August: | 2,433 | 703 | 3,204 |
| Change from July (Raw %): | 32.7% | 54.8% | 27.4% |
| Change from July (Raw Units): | 599 | 249 | 689 |
| Change from July (SA %): | -1.8% | NA | -5.1% |
| Change from August of 2021 (%): | 18.1% | 20.4% | 13.6% |
| Change from August of 2021 (Units): | 373 | 119 | 384 |
September Outlook
The forecasting models have September shipments at 1,749 (+/- 312) and Texas factory production at 2,278 (+/- 362) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) signaled that run rates declined further in September, and both headcount and workweeks were lower compared to August. Take the under.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for September.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of August totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up +18.9% over 2021 through this same point in the calendar year, and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up +17.2%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves down to 20,769 (+/- 1,061) and forecasted Texas plant production moves up to 27,162 (+/- 1,184).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 7,009 | 6,905 | 13,914 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 31.2% | 8.6% | 18.9% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,668 | 545 | 2,213 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 18,181 | 4,781 | 24,844 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 17.2% | 11.9% | 15.2% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 2,664 | 509 | 3,279 |
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