It's beginning to look a lot like ... Session

When the temperature starts dropping, the decorations go up in the neighborhood, and we find ourselves in the first few weeks of December we all know what everyone is thinking about - the Texas legislature will be in session in a little more than a month, of course. What? That isn’t what everyone else is thinking about?

I suppose there are few other things that will happen first. But for all of us political nerds out there the holidays are merely the precursor to the coming excitement, intrigue, and fun that is another legislative session in Texas.

Gavelling in at noon on January 10, the 140-day 2017 Texas Legislative Session will begin. And from the percolating rumours this coming year’s start might not be merely a month of congratulatory speeches for some local small town’s volleyball team or the acknowledgement of a particular boy scout group’s successful camping project. I’m sure we will still have those things, but there is a chance as we watch the early signs that this coming session’s traditionally early days of kumbaya might end a bit early. The fireworks generally reserved for the last third of a session could start going off right at the beginning.

Said differently, they might use a big gavel to start the session, but figuratively it might resonate more like fireworks.

Sure, everyone knows the basics that in the Texas Legislature Republicans control the House, Senate and every state-wide elected office (the Republicans have won every state-wide contest since 1994). And yes, at a base political philosophy and foundational level the various elected Republican members believe in the same core principals. But you have to remember that there is much more to governing and passing legislation than merely core principals. Passing legislation is likened more often than not to making sausage, not because it is simple, clean or straightforward.

So while the majorities of the chambers might all have the big “R” lapel pen, the grumbling rumors and assumptions from insiders is that conflict is brewing between the House and the Senate. Granted such a statement is far from being novel as there seems almost always an inevitable conflict every session between the two chambers. However, if the gossips are only half right 2017 could turn into one of those epic type battles – in a Batman versus Superman type fight.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has already announced his top 20 priorities for this coming session. We anticipate another 10 priorities will soon be released and all 30 will have 1 – 30 bill numbers coming out of the Senate. Most are asserting that the literally number of the bill associates with its ranking of priority by Patrick. Aside from the must pass budget, Patrick has laid out a wide range of top priorities from property tax cuts to public school choice to transgender bathroom legislation. He has also said hailstorm lawsuit abuses, police protective vests, union dues, ethics reforms and franchise tax reductions are all top priorities along with many others. (https://www.ltgov.state.tx.us/2016/11/14/lt-governor-patrick-announces-top-ten-legislative-priorities/ and https://www.ltgov.state.tx.us/2016/11/21/lt-governor-patrick-announces-additional-legislative-priorities/ ).

Presumed to be reelected by his fellow members of the House, current Speaker of the House, Joe Straus, has not laid out priorities with such specificity. However, considering that the Speaker is technically not yet the Speaker again for 2017 the vote for which will occur on the first day of session, it isn’t odd to not have what some would otherwise call presumptive declarations. Speaking broadly Straus has said that he is focused on limited government, child protective services and foster care, infrastructure needs, public and higher education, and the state’s mental health system. However, there are apparent differences of opinion on issue ranking on some issues between the Speaker and Lt. Gov. In a recent interview Straus said the transgender bathroom legislation that is currently ranked number six on Patrick’s top 30 list was not, “the most urgent concern of mine.”

Bathroom legislation aside, Patrick has made several comments related to school choice legislation being a must pass this session. School choice is ranked third in Patrick’s list of priorities. He has also indicated that school choice legislation passing is a prerequisite to the budget for all of school finance passing. Granted Straus has said there are a range options when people talk about “school choice” such as choice of schools within districts and charter schools; and he says that the House should keep an open mind on this issue. The Speaker, however, has also clarified if the “school choice” debate focuses on vouchers that there could be and historically has been trouble in a House which has not been receptive to a school voucher program.

There is some talk that the Senate might meet early in session by what is called the “committee of the whole” where the entire Senate hears bills as a full body rather than the traditional route of assigning bills to select committees to first consider legislation. This has certainly happened in the past for bills like voter ID but the question is if and for how many bills would such a route be used. For many watching to see if this approach is taken on a wide spectrum of bills the acts will be more than mere tea leaves as to how the session might unfold…or possibly more appropriately said unraveled. The intent of not forming committees but pushing out Senate bills in rapid and early succession would be to force them onto the House and possibly demand or compel House consideration of those bills before the Senate will address any other legislation, including all House bills.

We expect in the vehicle that is the entire legislative session the Senate will be the gas and the House will be the brakes. Now exactly who is steering the car at any given moment, well, that is a bit more unknown.

But the legislature will face many challenges, as they always do. There is less money in the budget than several previous sessions, which could make this go round a bit more akin to the 2011 budget woes than more recent sessions. Many of Texas’ largest cities similarly face budget problems that are also expected to come to the legislature. A recent report from Moody’s identified the pension fund shortfalls for Texas’ four largest cities. The $22.6 billion collective deficit will certainly be a topic of both bodies, especially because so many House and Senate members come from districts in or near the state’s largest urban areas.

One way or another we should all know relatively soon if this session is more hand-in-hand or a tenser, acrimonious showdown. The overall interaction will dictate not only how the bodies work but the odds of passing legislation, of which we expect between 6,000 to 7,000 bills filed

Time will certainly tell. Perhaps the early rumors amount to nothing more than just that, rumors. It’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility that the punditry, media, and lobby start gossiping in search of a good story to tell. Regardless, we know it will be exciting to watch and navigate through.

Best of all in just over a month, we will see if Batman and Superman get along, or if Texas is just not in a Justice League state of mind.