First Read

September is only about 46% titled at this point, but we can use installation reports to fill the gap. Installers’ Form-T filings reach TDHCA within days of the install, and a home’s installation tends to land a few days before its recorded transfer of ownership date.

Blending September’s titles issued to date with its installation reports points at roughly 1,290 new home sales (± 120) for the month.

The plot below shows how this method has scored so far. Installations ran well ahead of titles in June and July, as they did a year earlier, so the summer misses on the plot may be a seasonal pattern the blended model can’t account for until a second year confirms it.

Note: Every diamond is the model’s First Read for that month. Months on the solid line are old enough for their totals to be effectively final. For the months still accumulating titles, the dashed line traces the titles actually issued so far and the shaded band shows the range where each is currently expected to settle, incorporating everything reported since its First Read.

Early Look

New manufactured home sales for August 2026 titled to date are so far down a seasonally-adjusted 4.1% from the previous month and are running 4.8% below August of 2025. August of 2025 settled at 1,479 homes, the largest month of last year’s second half, so this is the toughest year-over-year comparison in the cycle, and the cadence inflation that flattered the spring and early summer readings is now out of the comparison.

About 90% of a sale month’s eventual total is already on the books at this point in the reporting cycle. That puts August on pace to settle near 1,390 new home sales (± 80) once the remaining titles are issued. That would land within about 6.1% of August of 2025’s final total of 1,479, with the top of the expected range falling just short of last year’s figure.

As the plot below shows, August’s early count is running just below last year’s line at the same point now that last year’s faster titling sits in the comparison months.

The comparisons in the table below are based on where the previous month’s numbers were when originally reported on one month ago.

TMHA Member’s Retailer Annual Sales Totals Report

Titled on Time

New home sales for July titled to date were up a seasonally adjusted 5.9% from the previous month and are up 7.2% on the raw total from July of 2025.

July’s 1,327 homes sold edged past June and May, the third straight on-time report month above 1,300 and the best of the three. Multi-section sales carried it, up 18% from July 2025, while single-section sales fell 9%.

With July roughly 97% complete at publication, expect the month to settle near 1,360 new home sales (± 20) as the last titles are issued.

That settled estimate would land about 2% above July 2025’s final total of 1,338. July of 2025 was the first month after the change in title timing took hold, so this is the first on-time comparison that is close to apples to apples, and it still shows a modest gain. From here the comparisons run against the second half of 2025, when faster titling was already in place.

While the plot above contains revised totals for previous months the comparisons in the table below are based on where the previous month’s numbers were when released one month ago.

TMHA Member’s Retailer Monthly Sales Totals Report

Titled Installation Location Trends

Here are the month-over-month changes for the top 10 counties for new home sales over the past five on-time report months, ranked by their total placements across that span.

July turned the table over. Bexar jumped 39%, its best month in the window, Bastrop rose 16%, Liberty 13%, reaching 45 homes to tie Montgomery for the top spot, and Brazoria 5%. The other six slipped: Harris fell 32%, to 32 homes, its lowest month in the window, Hidalgo dropped 29%, Midland gave back most of June’s surge (down 27%), and Ector (15%), Montgomery (6%) and Smith (5%) eased.

TMHA Member’s Retailer Annual Sales Total per County Report

Moving Averages

The plot below compares the 12-month moving average of shipments into Texas with placements, which we define as the first appearance of each new home in TDHCA records, by installation report or by title, whichever comes first. Placements counts a home once, whether it was sold at retail and titled or placed into a community’s inventory, so it is the broadest signal we have for new homes that are sited.

Placements averaged 1,387 homes a month over the twelve months through July 2026, about 40 below the shipments average for the same window. The placements average slid from about 1,480 at the start of 2025 to a low near 1,360 this spring and has edged up for two months, while shipments have held between about 1,410 and 1,430 all year, so the spread between the two lines, which opened to more than 70 homes a month last summer, has settled back to about 40. Some of the difference in the spread is homes sold into Texas by retailers in Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico, roughly 500 to 900 a year. Those homes shipped to the retailer’s state and were counted as that state’s shipments, but they were placed and titled in Texas.

The shipments line runs through August and placements through July.

THMA Public Shipment Report